President Donald Trump is still likely to order renewed US hostilities against Iran now that the midterm elections are over, two sources told Reuters in a report published on Thursday (November 5) — an assessment, not a US announcement of any new strike. Reuters stressed that the report establishes no strike order and no timetable.

Source: Reuters, November 5, 2026 (via JBizNews republication)

One source told Reuters that Trump had held off because of the midterms. "We asked him to hold off until the midterms," the source said. A second source said Trump had nothing to lose politically now that the vote was over. Reuters described them only as two sources; it did not identify them as senior US officials.

Trump defends the war, and warns Iran publicly

Asked on Wednesday about the election result, Trump defended launching the war, saying he wanted to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, Reuters reported. In separate public comments reported on Thursday, Trump also kept the strike option open: "Certainly, if Iran doesn't behave, I will," he replied when asked if he plans to resume strikes, adding that a binding deal under which Iran never gets a nuclear weapon would be acceptable, and otherwise he would "finish the job very easily."

Source: USA Today Network via Reuters Connect, reported November 5, 2026

Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for his party's defeat in a social-media post on Wednesday, Reuters reported, after Republicans lost control of Congress in Tuesday's elections. A White House adviser told Reuters that some officials and staff saw Vance's post as a foreign-policy break from Trump and a public recognition of the war's economic costs — though that account does not by itself establish a change in US policy.

The war's most recent exchange was the limited, defensive US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on November 2, on the eve of the vote. Read the earlier story: US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz

Mediation continues — with no breakthrough announced

Talks have focused on the future status of the Strait of Hormuz, the US blockade of Iranian ports, sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme, Reuters reported. Neither side has announced a breakthrough on the main issues preventing an agreement. Qatar said on Tuesday that the United States and Iran remained committed to mediation and were reviewing proposals intended to bridge their differences, while a senior Iranian official said this week that the two sides remained far apart.

Oil markets are pricing both outcomes

Oil edged higher on Thursday as traders weighed the war's next phase. Brent crude futures rose 78 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $95.40 a barrel by 0900 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 11 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $88.23, Reuters reported. "The situation in the Middle East is still unresolved and that's why there is some modest recovery in prices at the moment," said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS. June Goh, a senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, said markets were assessing the midterm impact on Trump's next steps, pricing in more likelihood that the war ends.

Source: Reuters, November 5, 2026

Other analysts were more cautious. Citi said in a note there were concerns that, with the midterms over, the White House could focus on its executive powers in foreign policy and potentially escalate the conflict with Iran. Eurasia Group lowered its estimate for the chance of renewed US strikes on Iran to 60 percent from 65 percent, but also cut the probability of a deal to 10 percent from 20 percent, and said escalation would likely push Brent into a band of $110 to $125 a barrel. Brent at $95.40 is yaani roughly $95 a barrel — still far above its level of about $60 at the start of 2026, before the war began.

Why this matters in the Gulf — and for Punjabi and Indian workers

The United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, and the Strait of Hormuz — through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments usually pass — has been its central flashpoint ever since. Renewed strikes could again disrupt shipping through the strait and push fuel prices higher. Lakhs of Punjabi and Indian workers live and work across the Gulf states, so any new escalation carries direct stakes for their safety, for flights home and for the money they send back to families in Punjab and across India.

Shipping through Hormuz was hit again on Thursday, when Iran's Revolutionary Guards said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire on routes Tehran calls unauthorised — a claim reported separately today. Read today's Hormuz story: IRGC says two tankers and a tugboat caught fire

What happens next

No side has announced a deal, a strike order or a deadline. The new Democratic-controlled Congress does not take office until January, leaving Trump's immediate military powers unchanged in the meantime, and Qatari mediation is continuing with both sides reviewing proposals. What the Reuters sources describe is an expectation inside Washington's orbit — the test will be whether Trump's public warning turns into orders, or whether the mediation track produces the breakthrough that has so far not come.