United Torah Judaism, the ultra-Orthodox party that backed Benjamin Netanyahu after each of the previous five elections, told President Isaac Herzog on Thursday that it would recommend no one to form Israel's next government — leaving former military chief Gadi Eisenkot as the favourite to receive the mandate, AFP reported on November 5.
Source: AFP via Ekkow, Nov 5
The party informed Herzog "that it has decided not to recommend any member of Knesset to form a government," the president's office said in a statement, referring to the 120-member parliament in which United Torah Judaism (UTJ) holds seven seats. The decision came on the second and final day of Herzog's consultations with the factions elected on October 27, in which neither Netanyahu's bloc (53 seats) nor Eisenkot's bloc (48) won the 61 needed for a majority.
Source: AFP via Ekkow, Nov 5
When consultations opened on Wednesday, UTJ, Ra'am and the Joint List were the uncommitted parties who would decide the tally — Awaaz Punjab reported the certified results and the opening round then. Read: Herzog opens consultations in Israel election deadlock
The tally now: Eisenkot 56, Netanyahu 46
UTJ's refusal moved the recommendation count decisively. The Times of Israel reported that Eisenkot had secured 56 parliamentary endorsements after Ra'am, Mansour Abbas's Arab-Israeli list, declared its eight lawmakers would support him, while Netanyahu stood at 46 — down from the 53 his bloc holds, because UTJ's seven withheld. Netanyahu was recommended by his own Likud, Shas (six seats), Religious Zionism (six), Zehut and Otzma Yehudit; Eisenkot was backed by his Yashar party, the Democrats, B'Yachad, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu (seven) and Ra'am.
Source: Times of Israel via ANI / Indian Economic Observer, Nov 5
Israeli media expected Eisenkot's total to climb to 67 if the Joint List, the other Arab-led list with 11 seats, recommended him as expected when it met Herzog later on Thursday — above the 61-seat majority line, even though recommendations are not coalition votes. Herzog chooses the candidate himself, but by tradition the mandate goes to the person recommended by the most lawmakers, which would now be Eisenkot.
Source: Cumhuriyet Daily (Israeli media tallies), Nov 5
Why UTJ walked away: the draft-exemption law
Both of UTJ's factions were directed by their spiritual leaders not to endorse any candidate — Degel HaTorah (four seats, Lithuanian ultra-Orthodox), on the instructions of Rabbis Dov Lando and Moshe Hillel Hirsch, and Agudat Yisrael (three seats, Hasidic). UTJ lawmaker Yitzhak Pindrus told Herzog the party's first priority is protecting people who study Torah — "We came to discuss topics and not people," he said — and its representatives made clear their backing for any future government is conditional on laws protecting the military-service exemption for religious students.
Source: Times of Israel via ANI, Nov 5; JBizNews, Nov 5
"In whatever government is next formed, our immediate item is sorting out the status of Torah students," Pindrus said, in comments reported by AFP. The exemption is the fault line of the whole contest: Netanyahu preserved it but stopped short of enshrining it in law, amid resentment from Israelis whose reservists serve multiple tours in the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, while Eisenkot — who has courted secular voters — has been adamant about closing the exemptions. Ultra-Orthodox Jews make up about 14 percent of Israel's population, AFP noted.
Source: AFP via Ekkow, Nov 5
What is solid
- UTJ told Herzog it 'has decided not to recommend any member of Knesset to form a government' — the president's office's own statement, reported by AFP and the Times of Israel (Nov 5)
- UTJ holds seven seats and had backed Netanyahu after each of the previous five elections; both its factions acted on their spiritual leaders' instructions (AFP; Times of Israel via ANI, Nov 5)
- Ra'am recommended Eisenkot, taking his recommendation tally to 56 against Netanyahu's 46 (Times of Israel via ANI, Nov 5)
What is only claimed
- The projected 67 for Eisenkot depends on the Joint List recommending him, which Israeli media expected but which had not been formally announced in the earliest Thursday reports — an expectation, not a result
- Observers told AFP UTJ's move is likely aimed at punishing Netanyahu and showing its votes cannot be taken for granted, and that UTJ would still serve in a government he formed — that is analysts' reading of the tactic, not the party's stated position, which is the Torah-students law
What happens next
Herzog must task a candidate by November 11, after the new Knesset is sworn in on November 10. Whoever receives the mandate gets 28 days, extendable by 14, to build a coalition; if he fails, Herzog can hand the task to another lawmaker for 28 days, and after that a 61-lawmaker majority can put forward its own candidate for a final 14 days before new elections are triggered. Eisenkot's arithmetic problem remains even if he is tasked first: he could form a government with the Arab parties' numbers, but that risks losing opposition allies such as Liberman, who shares the outgoing government's hawkish line on Palestinians — and Netanyahu, still caretaker prime minister, has attacked even the prospect of an opposition-Arab alliance, alleging on Wednesday, without presenting evidence in the reports reviewed, 'serious suspicions' of foreign money in the election. For the region, the deadlock decides who leads Israel while the Gaza ceasefire, the Iran war's aftermath and the Gulf shipping crisis are all still live.