ANTALYA, Türkiye — The World Meteorological Organization released its State of the Climate Update 2026 on Monday, November 9, the opening day of the COP31 climate summit, reporting that 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record and that the past 12 years have individually been the warmest ever measured.

Source: WMO, Nov 9 2026

The global mean near-surface temperature for January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C (±0.13°C) above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, based on nine internationally recognised datasets. That is comparable to the whole-year averages for 2025 (1.43°C) and 2023 (1.46°C) and below the 2024 record of 1.55°C — making 2023 to 2026 the four warmest years on record. The figure is likely to rise by year-end because of El Niño, which has been intensifying since August.

Source: Reuters via The Hindu BusinessLine, Nov 9 2026

"Off the charts" — a supersized El Niño meets a superheated planet

"El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts. El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. The WMO forecasts the El Niño may reach nearly four times the 0.5°C sea-surface threshold used to declare one between November 2026 and January 2027, is expected to be the strongest on record by December, and will continue into early 2027.

Source: WMO Secretary-General's COP31 statement, Nov 9 2026

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising. And those least responsible are suffering first and worst." Because El Niño typically boosts global temperatures by about 0.1°C to 0.2°C and has its greatest impact in the year after it develops, the WMO warns the final 2026 figure will likely exceed the January–September average — and 2027 should be prepared for as another record-breaking year.

Records across oceans, ice and water

Earth's energy imbalance — the gap between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat — reached its highest level since monitoring began in 1960 in 2025, with preliminary January–July 2026 values suggesting another record. The ocean absorbs about 90% of the excess heat, and global mean sea level reached a record high in 2026, with June, July and August the highest since satellite altimetry began in 1993. Greenhouse gases hit new records in 2025: carbon dioxide at about 426.8 ppm, methane at 1,948 ppb (up 167% since 1750) and nitrous oxide at 339.1 ppb (up 26%).

Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025 — a mass loss the WMO says would have filled five Olympic swimming pools every second of the year — and 2025 was the fourth consecutive year in which all 19 glaciated regions lost ice. Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest annual maximum on record and the Arctic maximum was the lowest or second lowest. Freshwater stored on land has been declining since 2014, with 42% of the assessed global area below normal in 2025 against a long-term average of 25%.

The human cost the report counts

The update says extreme events undermined food security, deepened poverty and drove displacement across regions. European heatwaves, drought and wildfires led to more than 30,000 excess deaths by preliminary estimates, with national temperature records in at least eight countries. An estimated 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat in an April 2026 heatwave, and the Himalayan glacier collapse and flash flood in Nepal in late August killed more than 1,300 people. For the first time, the World Health Organization has classified the anticipated health impacts of this El Niño as a health emergency. One bright line: countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.

What happens next

The update lands as negotiators open two weeks of COP31 talks in Antalya, running to November 20, where the science will frame arguments over emissions cuts and climate finance. With El Niño acting, in Saulo's words, as a "risk multiplier" for heatwaves, cyclones and rainstorms into 2027, the WMO says forecasts built on sustained global observation are more important than ever — and that leaders should prepare now for another record-breaking year.