New Delhi, Nov 5: India's natural gas demand is expected to decline by around 2 per cent year-on-year in 2026, even as the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports keep rising, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Global Gas Security Review 2026, reported on Thursday.

Source: IEA via NewKerala

India's LNG imports rose 10 per cent, or nearly 3 billion cubic metres (bcm), year-on-year during January-October 2026. The IEA attributed the increase to domestic gas production weakening more significantly than total demand, underlining the growing importance of imported gas in meeting the country's requirements.

Source: IEA via NewKerala

Demand had contracted sharply from March to May 2026 in the wake of the crisis before recovering, from June onwards, to levels broadly in line with a year ago, the agency said. Even so, the full-year consumption figure is projected to end lower than in 2025.

Source: IEA via NewKerala

The report flagged the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the year's defining supply shock: delivered LNG supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by around 62 bcm, or 63 per cent, year-on-year during January-October, which the IEA described as the largest supply shock in the history of the LNG market.

Source: IEA via NewKerala

Globally, natural gas demand is projected to decline by around 1.5 per cent, or nearly 65 bcm, in 2026 — the third annual decline this decade — while global LNG supply is also expected to fall by about 3 per cent, or almost 20 bcm, during the year, the review said.

Source: IEA via NewKerala

For India, described in the analysis as a historically price-sensitive LNG market, the squeeze matters because Asian spot LNG prices have averaged around $21.50 per million British thermal units, raising import costs for power producers, fertiliser makers and other industrial users when global prices spike.

Source: ET Edge Insights

The IEA said the outlook for India's gas market would remain influenced by global supply availability and domestic production trends — meaning that until home-grown output recovers, a softer-demand year will still leave the country more, not less, dependent on imported LNG.

Source: IEA via NewKerala