HOUSTON, Texas — Coastal and Southeast Texas face their highest flash-flood risk of the weekend on Sunday, November 15, as a disturbance tied to the storms battering the Pacific Coast pushes east across the Southwest and draws Gulf moisture into the state, according to FOX Weather, which published its report at 6:52 a.m. EST on Sunday, and reporting by TheWeather.com based on the National Weather Service in Houston. The Weather Prediction Center has placed areas near and south of Interstate 10 under a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall — Level 2 out of 4 — indicating an increased potential for flash flooding, with a Marginal Risk, Level 1 out of 4, covering much of the surrounding region.
The system has been building since Saturday. Rain began on Saturday across portions of Central and North Texas, making for a soggy start to the weekend in Dallas, FOX Weather reported. The disturbance is helping develop an area of low pressure near the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandles, TheWeather.com reported, and as it tracks southeastward it draws warm, humid air into Southeast Texas ahead of an approaching cold front — the combination forecasters say will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms through Sunday, with the heaviest downpours expected today.
Where the flood risk is highest: south of I-10, toward Matagorda Bay
Heavy rainfall is the main concern particularly south of Interstate 10 and along the coast. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected north of I-10, TheWeather.com reported, while south of the interstate totals could reach 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts approaching 6 to 8 inches, especially along the coast near Matagorda Bay. Rainfall rates in the strongest storms could exceed 2 to 3 inches per hour, and storms that repeatedly move over the same locations are what raise the risk of localized flooding. FOX Weather, using broader statewide guidance, said rainfall totals will generally range from 1 to 1.5 inches, while portions of Southeast Texas, including the Houston area, could pick up more than 2 inches — a reminder that the highest totals are expected to be concentrated near and south of I-10 and along the coast, not spread evenly across the region.
The Sunday timing: Brazos Valley first, Houston by late morning
Showers are possible throughout the day, with periods of heavier rain developing near the coast, particularly around Matagorda Bay, on Sunday morning, TheWeather.com reported. The line of storms associated with the approaching cold front is expected to move into the Brazos Valley during the mid- to late-morning hours, reach the Houston metro area from late morning into early afternoon, and move offshore by late afternoon. The cold front itself is expected to move offshore Sunday evening, with reporting based on the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office placing the front's passage through Southeast Texas late Sunday night into early Monday morning, November 16, before cooler and gradually drier conditions follow.
A severe-storm risk runs alongside the flood risk
Flooding is not the only hazard. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas generally south of a College Station–Conroe–Liberty line under a Marginal Risk for severe weather — Level 1 out of 5 — on Sunday, TheWeather.com and My Neighborhood News both reported, citing the National Weather Service. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Areas generally west of Interstate 45 and south of Interstate 10 are expected to be in the warm sector of the cold front, although it could extend farther north into Harris County, and the strongest storms, if they develop, are most likely west of I-45.
The Harris County Flood Control District's Flood Warning System provides near-real-time information about rainfall totals and water levels in local creeks, bayous and drainage channels, and residents can sign up for rainfall and water-level notifications by email or text, My Neighborhood News reported, citing the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office. Forecasters there stressed that the primary concern on Sunday is localized street flooding and rapidly accumulating water in low-lying areas and neighborhoods with poor drainage — and that a risk outlook is not the same as a flood warning, which would carry more specific information about an immediate hazard.
Why the ground is already primed
This round arrives on ground that is already wet. FOX Weather reported that some areas within the threat zone have received up to 4 inches of rain over the past week, that Houston and Corpus Christi have endured a wet weekend, and that heavy rainfall continues to soak parts of Texas, with some areas picking up 2 to 4 inches over the past 24 to 36 hours. That is why forecasters are focused on urban areas and communities already soaked by recent storms: when repeated downpours fall on saturated streets and drainage systems, water collects on roads faster than it can drain, even where creeks and bayous themselves are not expected to exceed their banks.
What this means for drivers, truckers and the Houston diaspora
For drivers, the practical risk on Sunday is standing water on familiar streets, intersections and low-water crossings — conditions that increase the risk of hydroplaning and can leave vehicles stranded in low-lying areas, the National Weather Service guidance reported by My Neighborhood News warned. The corridors in the heaviest-rain zone are the ones Houston-area commuters and freight drivers use most: Interstate 10 south of which the highest totals are expected, and Interstate 45, west of which the strongest storms are most likely. Long-haul and regional truckers running I-10 and I-45 through Harris County on Sunday should expect the worst conditions from late morning into early afternoon, when the storm line reaches the metro area, and should check conditions before setting out rather than trying to judge the depth of water on a flooded roadway. Houston is also home to a large Punjabi and South Asian community, many of whose members drive trucks, run businesses along these corridors, or will be travelling to Sunday gatherings — for them, the advice from forecasters is the same: allow extra travel time, keep an indoor backup plan, and monitor official alerts.
After the front: Houston's coolest day since mid-March
The cold front changes the weather, not just the rain. Gusty northeasterly winds will develop behind the front, with Wind Advisories scheduled for coastal areas and barrier islands expected to become windy enough to warrant an advisory on Sunday, TheWeather.com reported; My Neighborhood News, citing the weather service, put onshore winds ahead of the front at 15 to 20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph in some locations. Cooler air, lingering moisture and extensive cloud cover will keep conditions unsettled into Monday, with scattered light showers tapering off from north to south. Monday could be the coolest day Houston has experienced since mid-March, with high temperatures expected to remain mostly in the upper 50s. Temperatures then gradually rebound — into the 60s on Tuesday and the 70s on Wednesday — with drier conditions expected through midweek, although rain chances could return toward the end of the workweek.
What happens next
The heaviest rainfall should gradually shift offshore as the system advances, FOX Weather reported, and the disturbance is then expected to continue toward the Southeast early next week, spreading rain farther east. For Southeast Texas, the next information that matters is any flood watch or warning the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office issues as Sunday's storms develop, updated rainfall totals from the Harris County Flood Warning System, and confirmation of the front's timing offshore. Awaaz Punjab will update this story if a flood warning is issued for the Houston metro area or if forecast totals for the I-10 corridor change materially.