ANTALYA, Turkey, Nov 13 — UN Secretary-General António Guterres used his final press conference at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya on Friday to deliver his bluntest warning yet: a temporary overshoot of the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit is now unavoidable. "An overshoot of 1.5 degrees is now inevitable," he told reporters on his last day at the summit, according to the UN's own UNifeed record of the press conference.

Source: UNifeed (United Nations)

Limiting that overshoot, he said, requires "immediate and drastic emissions cuts, on the order of 6 per cent every year over the next few years." On the basis of countries' current national climate commitments, he warned, "we are heading for an overshoot as far as the eye can see — with temperatures above 2.5 degrees by the end of the century. That's a recipe for catastrophe."

"The central question is in the hands of member states, particularly the big emitters. They must recognise the need for an immediate and drastic reduction in emissions to keep the 1.5 goal still possible by the end of the century," Guterres said, referring to the warming limit countries agreed to pursue under the 2015 Paris Agreement, Reuters reported. A UN report last month found the world is already on course to exceed the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold.

Source: Reuters

Fossil-fuel divisions dominated the first week

Reuters reported that big fossil fuel producers and consumers at the talks are resisting any deal that would specify firm new targets or a shift away from oil, gas and coal, as the first week of COP31 drew to a close. Major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have traditionally resisted language constraining fossil fuels, while large developing economies such as India have opposed measures they say could limit their development and energy choices.

Katrine Petersen, an observer for the non-governmental organisation E3G, told Reuters: "We've also heard quite clearly from countries like India, the G77, that they don't want any firm targets. They don't want any kind of technology or fuel-specific language." Representatives from India, Saudi Arabia and Russia did not immediately comment, Reuters said. The United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, has skipped the talks for the second year in a row under President Donald Trump.

Turkey's electrification plan and the road to a draft text

Host Turkey is striving to place a proposal to expand global electrification at the centre of an eventual deal, saying it will cut emissions by speeding the shift away from fossil fuel-powered cars, boilers and other equipment — though the proposal does not require the extra electricity to come from renewable sources. Brazil, last year's COP host, is advocating progress on a plan for countries to map out their transition away from fossil fuels more clearly. Diana Acconcia, head of the EU delegation, said Europe backed the electrification goal, adding that for the European Union it must be achieved by clean sources of energy.

Australia, which is leading the negotiations under a split presidency arrangement with Turkey, is taking further submissions from countries until Saturday night, with a view to formulating a draft text early next week. The summit has another week to run. Earlier on Friday, Guterres also held a closed meeting with the coalition of finance ministers for climate action, where he argued that the climate challenge is now an economic challenge, and that finance ministries are where governments' choices become real.

"We must confront the disproportionate influence of the fossil fuel lobby. The future of our planet cannot be negotiated on the terms of those profiting from its destruction," said Guterres, who leaves his job at the end of December after two five-year terms — this is his last COP as Secretary-General. But he added: "I remain hopeful. Renewable energy has moved from the margins to the mainstream. The economics have changed. The technology has advanced." He closed with the appeal: "Face the facts. Follow the science. Choose the future. And never give up."