Goldman Sachs on Thursday, November 5 lowered its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 — a cut of $500 an ounce — citing the implications of the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish policy stance in recent months, Reuters reported.

Source: Reuters via TradingView

The bank also cut its forecast for the end of 2027 to $4,800 an ounce from $5,400, Reuters said. The note, by Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, kept a structurally positive longer-term view on gold but warned of near-term downside risk, and said potentially higher oil prices could add to the pressure on bullion.

Source: Reuters via TradingView / analyst note summary

$4,150Goldman Sachs end-2026 gold forecast, cut from $4,650 (Reuters)
$4,800Goldman end-2027 forecast, cut from $5,400
$4,063.39Spot gold early Friday, down 0.6% — but still up 4% on the week
68%Chance traders give a Fed rate HIKE in December (CME FedWatch, via Reuters)

Friday trade: gold slips, oil rebounds

In early trade on Friday, November 6, spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,063.39 an ounce by 0248 GMT and US gold futures for December delivery dropped 1% to $4,072.90, Reuters reported — even though spot gold remains up 4% so far this week after the Democratic sweep of the US midterm elections weakened the dollar. Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, told Reuters crude oil's rebound over the past day was adding to inflationary pressure weighing on gold, and that markets were still digesting the midterm outcome, leaving bullion rangebound in a consolidation phase.

Source: Reuters via TradersUnion

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Friday, although they remain set for a sharp weekly drop on expectations of a de-escalation in the Iran conflict after the US election result, Reuters said. Higher energy costs strengthen expectations that the Fed keeps interest rates elevated for longer, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Source: Reuters via TradersUnion

In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.3% to $51.91 an ounce, platinum gained 0.4% to $1,523.63 and palladium slipped 0.2% to $1,029.22 — all three also heading for weekly gains, Reuters reported.

Source: Reuters via TradersUnion

Why the Fed decides gold's next move

Traders currently see a 68% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool, and on Thursday two Fed officials made the case for modest and steady rate increases to address inflation that remains above target, Reuters reported. Investors now await the US non-farm payrolls report due at 1330 GMT on Friday, while Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman is also scheduled to speak later in the day.

Source: Reuters via TradersUnion

Goldman's $4,150 end-2026 target now sits at the low end of Wall Street calls, which stretch as high as $6,100-$6,300, Finimize noted, while the bank still points to steady central bank demand as a support. What happens next turns on Friday's payrolls and the Fed's December decision: a hike would test gold's hold above $4,000, while any sign of easing would reopen the rally that took bullion to a two-week high of about $4,134 on Thursday.

Source: Finimize / Reuters

Gold's cut follows a week in which bullion was heading for its best weekly gain since August even as oil fell sharply after the midterm sweep. Read: Oil set for biggest weekly fall, gold for best week