WASHINGTON — US President Donald Trump said on Thursday, November 5, that he will soon decide whether to resume all-out war on Iran, after meeting his national security team on Iran for the first time since the midterm elections. “Now we will make a decision,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. Asked whether the United States would go further with strikes to make sure Iran’s nuclear programme is dead and that “it will never happen again”, he said: “I would rather not destroy the rest of the country, if possible, but maybe I’ll have to. You’ll know soon enough.” The meeting formed part of the president’s weekly intelligence briefing, two US officials said.
Source: Axios, via Zot News
Trump gave no timetable and named no targets, and he did not announce that new strikes had been ordered. According to the officials cited in the reporting, the president is for now weighing three options: launching new strikes on Iran, continuing to squeeze the Iranian regime economically, or cutting a deal that includes significant concessions to the Iranians. The midterm election was widely seen in Washington as the inflection point after which Trump would decide whether to unleash a new wave of bombing to try to end the war.
Source: Axios, via Zot News
CENTCOM prepares; a third carrier is on the way
US Central Command (CENTCOM) is finalising preparations to potentially resume major combat operations in Iran, though it has not received a new directive from Washington, a US official said. One possible signal of renewed strikes would be the arrival of a third US Navy aircraft carrier strike group in the Middle East: the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group will spend a few days in Singapore starting Friday for a port visit and will not reach CENTCOM’s area of responsibility before mid-November, the official said.
Source: Axios, via Zot News
A two-day diplomatic off-ramp, drafted by Qatar
Diplomacy moved in parallel on Thursday. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held multiple phone calls with regional mediators from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Egypt. Qatari mediators continued discussions with Iran and the White House about a draft proposal under which the two sides would take a series of steps over two days to build mutual confidence toward a broader deal. On the first day, the United States would lift its naval blockade and release some of Iran’s frozen funds; in return, Iran would issue an official invitation to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to send inspectors to bombed nuclear sites, based on an agreement reached in Cairo a year ago. On the second day, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, after which nuclear talks would resume, focused on Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Regional sources described the draft; neither side has announced accepting it.
Source: Axios, via Zot News
Iran, for its part, repeated that its conditions come first. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a key figure in the indirect negotiations with Washington, met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Thursday and delivered a message from Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Putin said he was ready to try to help end the war. After the meeting, Rezaei said: “We told Mr. Putin that we announced seven conditions to the Americans regarding diplomacy, and that until the Americans fulfill our seven conditions, neither the Strait of Hormuz will be opened nor will there be any negotiations.”
Source: Axios, via Zot News
Rezaei’s Kremlin meeting, and the Khamenei message he carried to Putin, were reported earlier on Thursday. Read: Iran’s security chief delivers Khamenei message to Putin in Moscow
In Washington, Democrats prepare war votes
The warning landed as Democrats, buoyed by their midterm wins, set out plans to challenge the war in the next Congress. Representative Gregory Meeks, the senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote in a November 4 letter seeking colleagues’ support to become the committee’s chairman: “On the legislative front, I intend to bring resolutions to the floor to immediately terminate the President’s war with Iran and will prioritize clawing back Congress’s proper role in the making of American foreign policy.” Meeks also proposed demanding public testimony from senior administration officials about the Iran war, Venezuela and congressional authority over military action and trade. Democratic Whip Katherine Clark told CNN that Democrats would press the administration about continued funding for the conflict and how it intended to bring American troops home safely, accusing the president of taking the country into what she called a reckless war with no exit strategy and no clear goals. The letter sets out an intended agenda; it does not set a date for a vote, and no new resolution was announced on Thursday.
Source: BizzBuzz News
Background: the US–Israeli war on Iran began on February 28 and remains unresolved. The United States has struck Iranian nuclear sites and maintained a naval blockade, the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway for a large share of the world’s traded oil — remains closed on Iran’s terms, and oil markets reacted again on Thursday: Brent crude settled at $98.29 a barrel, up $3.67 (3.88%), after fresh tanker attacks revived supply fears. Trump has acknowledged the war contributed to Republican midterm losses and to higher fuel costs, but said this week that he would launch it again and that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon. Asked about reports of proposals concerning Tehran’s nuclear programme, he said on Thursday: “They’re not doing anything without our approval.” He did not confirm the substance of any proposal.
Source: BizzBuzz News; The Chronicle (Philippines)
Why it matters beyond Washington and Tehran
The next days will decide between three very different paths — renewed bombing, a longer economic squeeze, or a negotiated opening that starts with Hormuz. For the Gulf states acting as mediators, and for the large Indian and Punjabi workforce that lives and drives, builds and works across the Gulf, a reopened strait and steadier oil prices mean steadier fuel costs, freight rates and remittances; a resumed bombing campaign points the other way. Those stakes are context for what follows, not a prediction: as of Thursday night in Washington, no new strike order had been announced, and the decision Trump promised — in his words, “soon enough” — is still his to make.
Source: Axios, via Zot News