The world oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, November 13, as Middle East exports recover faster than global oil demand despite continued attacks on shipping, Reuters reported from London.
Source: Reuters, Nov 13, 2026
“The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran,” the Paris-based agency, which advises industrialised countries, said in its monthly Oil Market Report.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report, November 2026
Exports recover, inventories rise
Global oil supplies surged by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million barrels a day, lifting output by 5.3 million barrels a day since August, and observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October as Gulf exports recovered much faster than global oil demand, the IEA said. Gulf exports have rebounded to about 74% of pre-war levels, helped by a surge from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, even as tankers continue to come under attack.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report, November 2026
The agency raised its fourth-quarter supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels a day and now expects the average deficit for 2026 as a whole to be 685,000 barrels a day, down from the 1.7 million barrels a day it forecast previously. For 2027 it sees a supply surplus of about 3.8 million barrels a day, with a more substantial stock build than this quarter.
Source: Reuters, Nov 13, 2026
Emergency reserves and the demand side
The IEA also gave details of the remaining volumes from a record release of oil from its members' emergency reserves pledged in March, saying 71 million barrels (yaani 7.1 crore barrels) would be made available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel to ease market tightness, Reuters reported. Oil prices reversed earlier gains after the report was released at 0900 GMT.
Source: Reuters, Nov 13, 2026
World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels a day before rebounding by 2 million barrels a day in 2027, the IEA said — demand is still weighed down by disrupted Gulf exports of refined products and LPG, which remain at roughly half of pre-war levels, and by high fuel prices. Iran itself remains subject to a US blockade that has curbed its oil exports.
Source: Reuters, Nov 13, 2026
What is solid
- The IEA's own November report states supplies surpassed demand for the first time since the Iran war outbreak, and that the market will return to surplus in 4Q26
- October supply reached 105.4 mb/d and observed inventories rose 52 mb, per the IEA report
- Gulf exports excluding Oman were 18.4 mb/d in October, 26% below pre-war levels, per the IEA
What is only claimed
- The size of the 2027 surplus and whether the rebalancing holds: the IEA itself warns downside risks persist because attacks on shipping undermine the maritime security a sustained recovery needs
The surplus is tentative, not settled: the IEA warns that continued tanker attacks could reverse the export recovery, and its 2027 surplus of about 3.8 mb/d depends on Gulf shipments continuing to climb back toward pre-war levels. For Punjabi and Indian workers in the Gulf and for fuel buyers in India, the direction matters — a sustained surplus points to softer crude prices, while any new shipping shock would push the war premium back up.