The world oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of this year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as Middle East exports recover faster than global oil demand despite continued attacks on shipping, Reuters reported from London.

Source: Reuters, Nov 13, 2026

Oil supply will average 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the Paris-based agency, which advises industrialised countries, said in its monthly report — 1.7 million barrels a day higher than forecast demand. The IEA had previously forecast a fourth-quarter supply deficit, so the new report reverses its own outlook.

"The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," the agency said in the report. Oil prices reversed earlier gains after the report was released at 0900 GMT, with Brent crude last down 0.1% at $95.71 a barrel — yaani, roughly ₹8,520 a barrel in Indian terms.

How Gulf exports recovered

The report follows signs that Gulf oil producers are recovering exports disrupted since the start of the war in late February by using workarounds such as so-called dark crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers switch off tracking signals to evade attack. The OPEC+ group pumped 41.23 million barrels a day of crude in October, OPEC said on Wednesday — up about 2.04 million barrels a day from September and 97% of the pre-war February volume.

Demand is doing part of the work too: high oil prices have curbed consumption this year, and world oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels a day before rebounding by 2 million barrels a day in 2027, the IEA said. Supply outside OPEC+ is also rising — production from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana will rise by 1.6 million barrels a day this year — and in 2027 global supply is projected to rise by 6.6 million barrels a day to 108.1 million barrels a day, led by a further recovery in Gulf output.

For 2027, the IEA sees the supply surplus at about 3.8 million barrels a day, slightly down from a 3.94 million barrels a day surplus last month; the lower outlook partly reflects a downward revision from Iran, which remains subject to a US blockade that has curbed its oil exports. Other analysts had also pointed to excess supply — JPMorgan last week forecast a global surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in October.

The agency also gave more detail on the record release of oil from its members' emergency reserves pledged in March: 71 million barrels will be made available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel to ease market tightness in that fuel.