Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Friday that Iranian air defences destroyed a US MQ-1 drone over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz — the 16th aircraft of its kind the Corps says it has brought down — Reuters reported, citing Iranian media. There was no immediate confirmation from the United States, and the claim has not been independently verified.

Source: Reuters via Devdiscourse, Nov 6

The claim is the latest in a series Awaaz Punjab has tracked: the IRGC said it downed a 15th MQ-1 over Qeshm on Wednesday, and a 14th east of the Strait, off Sirik, in October. Read: IRGC says it downed a 14th MQ-1 off Sirik

The IRGC public relations office said in a statement on Friday that the drone, belonging to the US military, was brought down by an advanced air defence system operated by the IRGC Aerospace Force, under the control of Iran's integrated air defence network, Press TV reported. The statement did not specify the exact time of the incident or the type of missile used. The IRGC said its forces are constantly monitoring enemy aerial movements, reconnaissance activities and the flight patterns of the drones.

Source: Press TV, Nov 6

16thMQ-1 the IRGC says it has destroyed, in its own count (Press TV)
15thMQ-1 the IRGC said it downed over Qeshm on Wednesday (Press TV)
0Confirmations from the United States so far (Reuters)

The Jerusalem Post, reporting the same Iranian claim, noted it followed an explosion believed to have been caused by a missile attack on an oil products tanker in the Gulf on Thursday, which killed one seafarer, according to the ship's manager. The Marshall Islands-flagged tanker MT Velos Sapphire was sailing unladen towards Bahrain when it was hit, its Greek management firm Velos Tankers said, adding that no other crew members were injured, the crew extinguished a fire on board, and the vessel was taken to Bahrain's Khalifa Bin Salman Port, where an investigation will be launched.

Source: Jerusalem Post via KhanList, Nov 6

The MQ-1 Predator is a medium-altitude, long-endurance remotely piloted aircraft developed by General Atomics and operated primarily by the US Air Force, widely used in US military and surveillance operations across West Asia and beyond, Press TV noted. The US Air Force retired its MQ-1 Predator fleet in 2018, shifting to the more advanced MQ-9 Reaper.

Source: Press TV, Nov 6

What is solid

  • Iranian media, citing the IRGC, reported on Friday that Iranian air defences destroyed a US MQ-1 drone over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters; Jerusalem Post)
  • The IRGC's own statement, via Press TV, says the drone was brought down by an IRGC Aerospace Force air defence system under Iran's integrated air defence network, and gives no exact time or missile type
  • The IRGC said on Wednesday it had downed a 15th MQ-1 over Qeshm (Press TV)

What is only claimed

  • Whether a US drone was in fact destroyed on Friday rests solely on the IRGC's claim: there was no immediate confirmation from the United States (Reuters) and no independent verification
  • The IRGC's running totals of US drones downed are the Corps' own figures and have not been independently verified

Why Qeshm and the Strait of Hormuz matter

Qeshm is Iran's largest island and sits at the mouth of the Persian Gulf alongside the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas — so every military claim around it is watched by oil markets and by the lakhs of Punjabi and Indian workers based across the Gulf. Since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, Tehran has imposed strict regulations on the Strait, requiring vessels to coordinate with Iranian naval authorities and obtain permission before transiting, Press TV reported, and Iran says the Strait remains under its control, with the IRGC Navy and the Army Navy jointly managing security in the region.

Source: Press TV, Nov 6

What happens next

Washington had not responded to Friday's claim by the time of reporting. A US confirmation, denial or silence will shape how the claim is read: a confirmed loss of a US aircraft over Qeshm would be a significant escalation in the air war over the Strait, while an unanswered claim joins a pattern in which the IRGC announces drone interceptions — the 15th on Wednesday and, it says, MQM-170 drones grounded over southern Qeshm on Thursday — and the United States does not comment. Awaaz Punjab will update this story if the US military responds.