Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda does not think a conventional Russian attack on NATO territory is likely for now, but expects Russian leader Vladimir Putin's provocations to continue, in an interview with Germany's WELT published on Friday and reported by POLITICO.

Source: POLITICO via WELT

"I don't think Russia is currently ready for large-scale operations," Nauseda said. "Russia's resources are tied up on the Ukrainian battlefield, and Russia is not succeeding there." But he added: "Putin is testing us and moving ever closer to Article 5, NATO's collective defense commitment."

Hybrid war as the test

According to Nauseda, the Russians want to observe how the alliance responds to so-called hybrid attacks, which are suspected to have included drone incursions, cyberattacks and arson, among other things. The hybrid war will therefore continue, he said, not only on NATO's eastern flank but also in Germany, Denmark and other countries. Russia is testing "how determined we are and whether we will respond collectively when certain red lines are crossed," the Lithuanian president said. Reporting of the same interview by Poland's Onet added that Lithuanian authorities have received intelligence regarding possible provocations by Russia, and recalled a recent incident in which a drone crashed into a tree and exploded.

"They will only pretend to negotiate"

Nauseda, an economist who has led Lithuania since 2019, also sees no serious willingness in Moscow to enter negotiations to end its war against Ukraine before next spring. Moscow will use the winter months to keep up pressure on Ukraine through air strikes on cities, he said, and Putin will make demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine from the outset. If Ukraine gets through the winter, he said, the chances of serious talks will improve in 2027. "The Russians will only pretend to negotiate. I don't trust them," he said.

His warning lands as Ukraine's allies finished two days of Brussels talks on post-war security guarantees and reconstruction ahead of US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi next week, and as Kyiv reports Russian plans for new strikes on energy targets and Dnipro bridges. Lithuania, a Baltic state of 2.8 million people bordering Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, has been among Ukraine's most vocal backers and among the alliance members most exposed to the hybrid incidents Nauseda describes.

Nauseda's assessment sits alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's own remarks this week urging Ukraine toward compromise while telling Kyiv to keep its chin up — two allied leaders reading the same winter very differently. Read more: Rutte urges Ukraine compromise, tells Kyiv to keep its chin up

Nauseda's message to the alliance was ultimately about response, not prediction: every drone incursion, cyberattack and arson is, in his reading, a question Moscow is asking NATO — and the answer the alliance gives, collectively or not at all, is the point of the exercise.