Russia's advance in Ukraine has slowed to a crawl. Territory seized by Russian forces in the first 10 months of 2026 amounts to 117.38 sq km (45.32 sq miles), according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Washington-based think tank that tracks the front from open-source geolocated footage, Al Jazeera reported on Friday.

Source: Al Jazeera, Nov 6, 2026

By comparison, Russian gains in 2025 were 5,304 sq km (2,047.95 sq miles), including 473 sq km of Russian territory recaptured in the Kursk region, while in 2024 they were 3,604 sq km. That is an advance rate of 0.38 sq km a day this year, against 13.25 sq km a day in 2025 and 9.9 sq km a day in 2024. In September and October, ISW assessments show, Russia lost both firmly controlled and infiltrated territory.

Casualties Ukraine says are beyond Russia's recruitment

Ukraine's General Staff put the estimated number of Russian personnel killed or seriously wounded from January 1 to October 31 at 381,300 — a Ukrainian military estimate that Al Jazeera said it cannot independently verify, as with casualty claims by either side. Estimated Russian losses have broken monthly records for the war since the summer — 42,860 in July, 46,230 in September and 54,400 in October — far beyond Russia's estimated recruitment capacity of 24,000 to 30,000 a month, according to the same reporting.

Kyiv links the stall to its long-range campaign. Ukraine resumed almost daily targeting of Russian refineries in the past week, hitting eight in seven days: three refineries hit on October 30, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak; two more in the Ufa complex on October 31; Lukoil's Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Nizhny Novgorod the next day and a production and dispatch station in the Samara region the day after; the Yaroslavl refinery on November 3; and the Ryazan refinery on November 5.

Russia, for its part, unleashed an unusually heavy barrage in the week ending November 6 — 2,346 drones and more than 80 missiles across Ukraine, reaching a crescendo on November 3 with 370 drones and 76 missiles — leaving hundreds of thousands of families struggling with blackouts at the start of winter. In one of Russia's deadliest attacks this year, at least 50 people were killed in the village of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukraine's military intelligence service (GUR) said residents had gathered for Monday humanitarian aid distribution.

Source: Al Jazeera, Nov 6, 2026

Read Awaaz Punjab's report on the Komyshuvakha aid-point toll rising to 53. Komyshuvakha toll rises to 53

Four tankers of diesel, reportedly no buyers

The refinery strikes were designed, Al Jazeera reported, to deprive Russia of energy and export revenue and to scupper a deal reached by Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump on October 9, when Trump invited Russia to sell 1.8 million tonnes of diesel to the global market by the end of the year to help bring down transport prices — yaani about 18 lakh tonnes. The invitation sat against US oil sanctions and the Lindsey Graham Act Trump had signed 11 days earlier, which gave him power to sanction countries buying Russian oil.

The Kremlin has since pumped four tankers full of diesel, the Financial Times reported, hoping to sell it to the US and effectively end oil sanctions against Russia. But those tankers have reportedly failed to find buyers willing to risk the legal consequences of buying Russian oil. The Kremlin dismissed the FT report as fake news. On October 27, US Senator Richard Blumenthal, a co-author of the Lindsey Graham Act, warned a Greek shipping company operating one of the four ships not to try to offload its cargo in the US, writing: "The President may have given a licence to facilitate this transaction, but only Congress can make it legally valid."

What happens next turns on two clocks: the front, where ISW's numbers say Russia is now losing ground in some sectors even as its missile and drone barrages intensify ahead of winter, and the Abu Dhabi talks opening November 10, where US-led negotiators will meet Ukrainian and Russian delegations. Whether unsold diesel and a stalled advance change Moscow's terms will be the first test of those talks.