American households will pay more to heat their homes this winter, with the average winter heating bill projected to rise 7.1 percent to $1,002, according to a new report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), the group that represents state officials who run federal heating-aid programs. The average bill was $936 last winter, NEADA said, so the typical household faces about $66 more in heating costs this season — and households that heat with oil face far worse.
Source: The Hill — Heating costs set to rise 7 percent this winter, report says (Nov. 11, 2026)
Nearly 5 million households that rely on heating oil are projected to see their seasonal costs jump 70.2 percent, to an average of $2,977, up from $1,749 last winter, NEADA projected. Heating oil is concentrated in the Northeast and Alaska, and the Northeast is the hardest-hit region in the forecast: average heating expenses there are expected to rise 16.9 percent, or $221, from $1,311 last winter to $1,532 this winter.
Why heating-oil homes are hit so much harder
Federal price data show why. Residential heating oil averaged $6.23 a gallon in the week of October 26 — the highest reading in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly survey, which began in October 1990 — and was still $6.14 a gallon on November 2, about 69 percent above the $3.63 recorded a year earlier, according to EIA figures compiled in heating-cost reporting this week. About 82 percent of the nation's heating oil is used in the Northeast, NEADA says, which is why states such as New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New England face the steepest bills — states that are also home to large Punjabi and South Asian communities.
NEADA and analysts cited in the coverage link the surge to tighter global supplies of distillate fuels — the family of fuels that includes both heating oil and diesel. The war involving Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, refinery shutdowns and cuts linked to that conflict and to Russia's war in Ukraine, and refinery decisions about whether to produce jet fuel or heating oil have all tightened supply, the reporting says.
NEADA Executive Director Mark Wolfe warned that the burden will fall hardest on low- and middle-income families, and said that for planning purposes it is prudent to assume heating oil prices will remain elevated throughout the winter heating season.
Many households are already behind
The higher bills land on households that are already struggling. NEADA estimates that about one in six U.S. households is behind on utility payments, owing about $23 billion in total. Wolfe warned that the increases will place additional pressure on families already dealing with elevated prices for food, housing and gasoline.
Not every fuel rises the same way. NEADA projects natural-gas heating costs to stay roughly flat this winter, while electricity and propane bills are expected to rise, according to summaries of the report. Weather may soften the blow slightly: forecasters expect a relatively mild start to winter under a strong El Niño pattern, which could limit heating demand — but experts cited in the coverage say milder weather will not fully offset the higher fuel prices.
The same fuel family hits truckers at the diesel pump
Heating oil and diesel are both distillates, so the same supply squeeze shows up on the highways. The U.S. average diesel price was $6.292 a gallon on November 2, about $2.54 higher than a year earlier, according to EIA data reported by trucking industry outlets — a direct cost pressure on Punjabi truckers and owner-operators across the United States, on top of the heating bills their families face at home in the Northeast and elsewhere.
What happens next
The federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which helps low-income families pay heating bills, enters the winter at last year's funding level. The Department of Health and Human Services released $3.6 billion to states on October 9 — 90 percent of what a temporary spending law allows, at last year's regular rate — according to NEADA and legal reporting on the release. That temporary law runs only through December 11, so any additional money for this winter depends on what Congress passes, and the White House's 2027 budget, released in April, proposed ending the program altogether.
Families who heat with oil can still act before the coldest weeks: state energy-assistance offices take LIHEAP applications through the winter, and EIA publishes heating-oil prices weekly from October through March, giving households and assistance agencies a running check on whether NEADA's projection — $1,002 on average, and $2,977 for oil-heated homes — is tracking high or low as the season develops.