The National Weather Service in Mount Holly upgraded Ocean County to a Coastal Flood Warning early Friday, warning that one to two feet of tidal water above ground level is expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST on Friday, November 13. The warning covers Ocean and Coastal Ocean, New Jersey, and was issued at 3:04 a.m. EST on Friday.

Source: National Weather Service Mount Holly

At this level, the weather service says, widespread roadway flooding occurs in coastal and bayside communities and along inland tidal waterways, many roads become impassable, and some damage to vulnerable structures may begin to occur. A Coastal Flood Warning means moderate or major tidal flooding is occurring or imminent, and residents should be prepared for rising water and follow the recommendations of local emergency management officials.

Where the water will hit: Barnegat Bay and the shore towns

Communities near Barnegat Bay and the surrounding coastline face the greatest concern, with rising water expected to affect streets, parking areas and properties near tidal waterways around the Friday morning high tide, generally around 10 a.m. The weather service's tide table for Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light puts the Friday 9 a.m. total tide at 4.5 feet MLLW — 2.0 feet above normal and in the Moderate flood category — easing to Minor at the Friday evening tide.

Coastal flood advisories are also in effect along other portions of the New Jersey coastline for the same 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. window, and other coastal locations including portions of Atlantic, Cape May and Monmouth counties may also see tidal flooding depending on local conditions. Ocean County is also under a Gale Warning on Friday, and rain with strong north-northwest winds is part of the same storm pattern pushing water toward the shore.

The third round in three days

This is not the first water this week. Ocean County was under a Coastal Flood Advisory on Wednesday and again on Thursday, and on Thursday evening the weather service issued a Flash Flood Warning for southeastern Monmouth County and northeastern Ocean County before reporting at 9:50 p.m. Thursday that the heavy rain had ended, flood waters had receded, and that warning would expire at 10 p.m. — while urging drivers to continue to heed remaining road closures. Friday's warning is a step up from those advisories: the earlier advisory for Friday had expected up to half a foot of inundation, and the 3:04 a.m. upgrade raised the expectation to one to two feet.

Who is affected

For shore residents in towns around Toms River, Brick and Barnegat Bay, the practical risk window is the Friday morning high tide: flooded streets, cut-off low roads, and water reaching vulnerable ground-floor structures. Residents in flood-prone neighbourhoods should monitor water levels and allow additional travel time if their routes pass through coastal areas. New Jersey is one of the largest Punjabi diaspora states — families inland in places like Edison and Jersey City with shore homes, shore jobs or Friday travel toward the coast should check road conditions before setting out, and truckers using shore-area routes should expect local diversions where roads close.

What happens next

The warning and advisories are scheduled to expire at 3 p.m. on Friday. The weather service expects tidal levels to decrease after Friday, with improving coastal flooding conditions heading into the weekend — its Barnegat Light table still shows a Minor flood impact at the Saturday 10 a.m. tide (3.7 feet MLLW) before levels fall further on Sunday and Monday. Residents should remain cautious until floodwaters recede and affected roads reopen, and can follow updated alerts from the National Weather Service at weather.gov/phi and water levels through the National Water Prediction Service.