US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from September, more than the 0.3% economists had forecast, and core prices — which strip out food and energy — rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Both readings came in a tenth of a percentage point hotter than expected. The headline rate slowed from September's sharp 0.6% monthly rise, but core inflation rose 0.3% for a third straight month, underlining that underlying price pressure is not cooling.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics release, via TrendBrief

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures how much the prices of everyday goods and services — food, housing, fuel, transport — change over time. Shelter costs made up more than 30% of October's monthly rise, food prices jumped 0.5%, and energy rose 0.7%, a sharp slowdown from September's 5.2% energy surge, according to the BLS release.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics release, via TrendBrief

Why there is no annual inflation rate this time

Unusually, the report carries no official 12-month inflation rate for all items or for core prices. The BLS has confirmed it never collected October 2025 prices because of last year's federal government shutdown, which ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025, so there is no base month to compare against. The last official annual readings remain September's: headline inflation of 3.7% and core inflation of 2.6% over 12 months.

Source: Reuters, via Devdiscourse

What it means for the Federal Reserve

This is the last CPI report before the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year on December 8-9, after the central bank held rates in October. Before Tuesday's release, markets were pricing a probability of roughly 80% or more on a quarter-point December increase, Reuters reported. The print also lands exactly on a line drawn overnight by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said in London that he would support a quarter-point hike in December and that a half-point move should be considered if core prices rose 0.3% or more on the month — core rose exactly 0.3%.

Source: Coinpedia

Hotter-than-expected inflation typically means traders expect interest rates to stay higher for longer, because the central bank has less room to ease while prices are still rising too fast. Awaaz Punjab's preview of this report had flagged that the missing annual rate and the December decision made the monthly core figure the number markets would lean on. The next CPI report, covering November, is due on December 10 — the day after the Fed meeting ends. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics October 2026 CPI release; ForexFactory economic calendar (forecasts and previous readings); Reuters.