Ukraine's long-range strikes have taken 15 of Russia's 38 major oil refineries out of operation and forced another 12 to cut production, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said on November 5, in an assessment covering conditions through late September. The agency said combined crude processing at the affected plants had fallen 55.4 percent since the start of the year, and that the precision strikes had caused more than $23.2 billion in damage (yaani kareeb 2,320 crore US dollar) — approaching the sector's reported $26.6 billion (yaani kareeb 2,660 crore dollar) in 2025 revenue.

Source: SOFX, reporting HUR via Ukrainska Pravda

HUR identified the Volga, Central and Southern federal districts as the hardest-hit regions. Among the disrupted facilities, it named Slavneft-YANOS, Kirishinefteorgsintez, the Ryazan Oil Refining Company, Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery and Lukoil's Permnefteorgsintez, which together account for about 33 percent of Russia's refining volumes, the agency said.

Remote plants are partly offsetting the losses

Refineries farther from the border have kept running, letting Moscow partly offset the losses, HUR said. It listed Gazprom Neft's Omsk plant, the Achinsk refinery, NefteKhimServis, and the Khabarovsk, Mari and Vanino refineries, which processed a combined 906,000 barrels a day in September, up 147,000 barrels a day from the start of the year and about 24 percent of national refining. Their distance limits that substitution, and shortages of rail cars and road tankers slow deliveries to regions running short, the agency added.

The strikes have continued since the assessment period. Overnight on November 5, Ukrainian attack drones hit the Rosneft-operated Ryazan refinery, one of the five plants HUR singled out, setting off a large fire, according to reporting of the attack.

Source: SOFX

That overnight Ryazan strike was reported separately earlier. Read the Ryazan overnight strikes report

Lasting damage — and hidden figures

The assessment points to damage that is becoming harder to reverse, HUR said. It estimated that replacing damaged equipment alone could cost Russia more than $20 billion (yaani kareeb 2,000 crore US dollar), a bill made heavier by sanctions that restrict access to specialised parts. Bloomberg separately reported that Rosneft has stretched some repairs from days to months, meaning each hit now keeps capacity offline longer.

Moscow has moved to limit what outsiders can see. HUR said a decree President Vladimir Putin signed on September 28, No. 686, restricts the disclosure of oil refining data, which the agency said makes independent monitoring impossible. That is why the $23.2 billion damage figure, the 55.4 percent processing fall and the count of 15 refineries out of operation are presented here as Ukraine's assessment, not as independently verified facts — no Russian official data confirms them, and the agency itself is a party to the conflict.

Despite shifting work to the plants still running, HUR said Russia cannot fully meet domestic fuel demand and export commitments at once, and has begun importing fuel through what it described as grey schemes to bypass sanctions. Kyiv has framed the campaign as economic pressure on Moscow's war effort.

What happens next

Earlier in November, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine could stop striking Russian refineries if Moscow halted attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, or if Washington supplied Patriot air defence missiles, even briefly. "We said that if you want us not to attack Russia's refineries, they must not attack our energy system," he said, offering to pay for a one-month Patriot package rather than receive it as aid. Washington has not publicly responded to that proposal, and HUR said output at the surviving remote refineries could fall further in 2027 because maintenance planned for this year has been postponed.

Zelenskyy's Patriot-for-pause offer was reported earlier this week. Read the Zelenskyy Patriot offer report