Alaska's Senate race — one of only two Senate contests still uncalled a day after Americans voted — has flipped in the count. The Associated Press's latest results table on Wednesday, November 4, rated the race Too Early to Call and showed Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan with 102,701 votes to his 102,075, a margin of 626 votes, with 299 of Alaska's 403 precincts reporting and an estimated 74.29 percent of the vote counted. A third candidate sharing the incumbent's surname, Daniel Sullivan, had 3,583 votes in the same AP table. This report updates Awaaz Punjab's November 3 election-night story, which left the race uncalled while counting continued; the new development is the change of lead and the completion of the first full tally.
Source: Associated Press — Alaska Senate results table (Nov. 4, 2026)
Two snapshots, one knife-edge race
The Alaska Division of Elections' early-Wednesday snapshot told the same knife-edge story in percentages: Peltola at 48.02 percent, Sullivan at 47.73 percent — a lead of 0.29 percentage points — with Republican Gerald Heikes at 2.25 percent and undeclared candidate Dan J. Sullivan at 1.68 percent, the Juneau Independent reported, citing the Division. The AP estimated about 74 percent of ballots cast have been counted. Vote snapshots in Alaska move as new batches are added, and earlier counts during election night had shown Sullivan narrowly ahead; readers should treat every total in this story as the snapshot it is labelled, not as a final result. Neither candidate has claimed victory, and no race call has been made by the AP.
Why the remaining ballots matter — and may favour Peltola
Many of the ballots still to be processed are from rural districts expected to favour Peltola, the Juneau Independent reported, citing New York Times analysis. That pattern has precedent in her own career: in her US House campaigns she gained about 2 percent after election night in 2022 and about 3 percent in 2024, according to Ballotpedia and Juneau Empire figures cited by the Juneau Independent. Peltola, a former congresswoman and the first Alaska Native elected to the US House, told reporters on Wednesday morning, as CBS News reported: 'The results are not going to be fast.' She added: 'Alaskans are patient. We just want to make sure the folks [in] the Lower 48 know it won't be hours, it won't be days, it will be weeks.' Tallies will be updated with mail, rural and other votes cast by Election Day that are processed during the next 14 days.
Ranked choice: why 50 percent is the number that matters
Alaska elects its federal officials by ranked-choice voting. Voters rank candidates in order of preference; if no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest-placed candidates are eliminated one by one and their supporters' next choices are redistributed until one candidate reaches a majority. On the Division's early-Wednesday percentages, neither Peltola (48.02 percent) nor Sullivan (47.73 percent) is close to a first-choice majority, so there is a good chance the ranked-choice process will be used to determine the winner, the Juneau Independent reported. That tabulation comes after the remaining mail and rural ballots are processed, which is why Alaska results traditionally take about two weeks to settle. The new Congress is scheduled to begin its term on January 3, 2027.
A separate dispute runs alongside the arithmetic. Dan J. Sullivan — an undeclared candidate who shares the incumbent's name — holds more votes (3,583 in the AP count) than the current margin between the two leaders. The US Department of Justice has sued to halt certification of the election in a scenario where Peltola's first-choice lead is smaller than the namesake candidate's vote total; an Anchorage federal judge dismissed that suit and it is in the appeals process. Federal and Alaska law-enforcement agencies are also pursuing criminal probes into ALLEGATIONS that the Peltola campaign and other Democrats recruited Dan J. Sullivan and other spoiler candidates to confuse voters. Peltola and others targeted by the investigations have DENIED the allegations. Legal experts have noted that such tactics, known as ballot stacking, are practised in various forms, are common in campaigns and are generally legal, and the Alaska Supreme Court this summer overturned an attempt by the state Division of Elections to remove Dan J. Sullivan from the ballot based on the same allegations. All of the above is allegation and litigation, not findings against any candidate.
What the candidates are saying
President Donald Trump said on election night, and Dan S. Sullivan said on Sunday, that they would accept the results of the elections, according to reporting by The New York Times and CNBC cited by the Juneau Independent. On Tuesday, however, Sullivan told reporters, as the Alaska Beacon reported: 'We are witnessing the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of the state of Alaska, one of the, maybe one of the biggest in the U.S. Senate's history.' That is the incumbent's allegation, made while the count he currently trails was still incomplete; no court has made such a finding. Some Republicans in Congress have suggested Peltola may not be seated even if she is officially declared the winner, The Hill reported — a suggestion that underlines why, as the Juneau Independent put it, who gets the most votes may be known in a couple of weeks, while who is officially accepted as the winner may take longer.
Background: Sullivan, Peltola and a seat Democrats already know they do not need for control
Sullivan, a Republican first elected to the Senate in 2014, sought a third term in a state Donald Trump carried comfortably, while Peltola — who represented Alaska in the US House before losing her seat — ran as the Democratic challenger in a midterm that became a national Democratic wave. Democrats have already secured control of the Senate with at least 54 seats on the counts reported Wednesday, so Alaska's result will set the size of their majority rather than decide it; Mississippi is the other Senate race still uncalled. That context matters for the legal fight: with control already settled, the dispute in Alaska is about this one seat, its certification, and whether the namesake-candidate litigation outlasts the count itself.
What happens next
Alaska officials will keep processing ballots from precincts that have not yet reported, plus mail and rural ballots cast by Election Day, over the next 14 days. If no candidate reaches a first-choice majority, the ranked-choice tabulation will redistribute the preferences of eliminated candidates — including, potentially, those of Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan — until a winner emerges. The AP will call the race when its analysis supports a call; the state will then move to certification, where the dismissed-but-appealed Justice Department lawsuit could re-enter the picture. Awaaz Punjab will update this story when the AP calls the race, when the ranked-choice tabulation is published, or when a court rules on the certification challenge.
Source: Juneau Independent — Peltola leads by 0.29% after election night (Nov. 4, 2026)