The United States trade deficit narrowed slightly in September even as imports raced to a record high, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday, November 4, in the full monthly report that completes the advance goods-only figures released last week. The overall shortfall in goods and services trade contracted 0.7% to $105.0 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau said.

Source: Reuters, November 4, 2026

The headline number came in smaller than economists had expected. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a deficit of $108.0 billion, while the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was $107.9 billion and a Dow Jones survey pointed to $107.7 billion. The August deficit was revised to $105.7 billion, so September's improvement was narrow — and the three-month average deficit actually widened to $101.2 billion from $89.9 billion, according to Sharecast's reading of the Bureau of Economic Analysis release.

Capital goods imports at a record high

Imports increased 1.2% to $426.6 billion in September, a record high. Goods imports rose 1.3% to an all-time high of $346.9 billion. Capital goods imports shot up by $11.6 billion to a record high of $158.0 billion as the artificial-intelligence buildout drew in imports of computers and computer accessories, even as imports of semiconductors dropped by $1.2 billion. Non-petroleum imports were the highest on record.

"The massive imports of these goods to support the AI buildout have been a key factor behind the widening of the trade deficit to current near-record levels," Thomas Ryan, senior North America economist at Capital Economics, told Reuters. "But there is a question mark over whether this pace will continue following a string of victories for AI skeptics in gubernatorial races across the country last night," he added, pointing to resistance to data centre construction that Reuters reported also contributed to Republican losses in Tuesday's midterm elections.

Imports of consumer goods rose by $2.4 billion, lifted by a $2.9 billion increase in pharmaceutical preparations. Imports of industrial supplies and materials fell $3.7 billion, reflecting declines in nonmonetary gold and crude oil. Nonmonetary gold is excluded from the calculation of gross domestic product, the Commerce Department noted.

Exports also set records

Exports advanced 1.9% to $321.5 billion, also a record. Goods exports increased 2.5% to $211.0 billion, a four-month high, and exports of capital goods rose by $3.8 billion to an all-time high of $73.3 billion, driven by computers, computer accessories and civilian aircraft. Exports of food and beverages rose $1.9 billion to $16.0 billion, the highest level since June 2022, boosted by soybean shipments, while crude oil exports rose $1.2 billion — the United States is a net exporter of oil. In services, imports increased $0.8 billion to a record high of $79.7 billion on travel and transport, and exports advanced $0.7 billion to an all-time high of $110.5 billion, leaving a services surplus of about $30.9 billion.

What it means for growth

The goods trade deficit tightened 0.5% to $135.9 billion in September, but when adjusted for inflation it widened $3.5 billion, or 3.0%, to $119.5 billion — the figure that matters for economic growth. The government estimated last week that imports cut 2.64 percentage points from GDP growth in the third quarter, the most since the first quarter of 2025, when businesses were front-loading orders because of President Donald Trump's tariffs. The economy still grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the July-September quarter, but trade has not contributed to GDP growth for four straight quarters. "Looking ahead, net exports are still likely to be a drag on fourth-quarter GDP growth, even as robust business investment continues to support broader economic activity," Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, told Reuters.

Record gaps with four partners, despite the tariffs

Wednesday's report also showed the United States logged record goods trade deficits with several countries, including Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea, despite Trump's aggressive tariffs. Reuters reported that discontent over Trump's policies, including tariffs, contributed to his Republican Party losing control of Congress to Democrats in Tuesday's midterms, with domestic demand fuelled by resilient consumer spending and an AI spending spree by businesses. For the first nine months of the year, however, the overall deficit is down $92.4 billion, or 12.2%, from the same period in 2025, with exports up 11.6% year-to-date against a 6.2% rise in imports.

For the Punjabi diaspora in the United States — heavily represented in trucking, warehousing, import businesses and small retail — the numbers cut both ways. Record imports mean full ports, busy warehouses and freight to haul, including the computers and machinery still pouring in for data centres. At the same time, a near-record deficit driven by capital goods underlines how much of America's technology buildout is being supplied from abroad, even under high tariffs, and why trade policy will stay a live fight in the new Congress.