INDIANAPOLIS, Indiana — Democratic state senator J.D. Ford has unseated three-term Republican U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz in Indiana's 5th Congressional District, one of the clearest upsets of the November 3 midterms. The Associated Press has called the race for Ford with 575 of the district's 581 precincts reporting — 98.97 percent — and an estimated 98.98 percent of the vote counted: Ford had 134,476 votes to Spartz's 125,851, a margin of 8,625 votes, or about 51.7 percent to 48.3 percent.

Source: Associated Press election results, U.S. House District 5, Indiana (Race 15026)

Ford declared victory on Tuesday night, and Decision Desk HQ had already called the race for him at 8:28 p.m. Eastern, according to reports of the call; CNN also called the race late on Tuesday. The Indiana Capital Chronicle reported that with 93 percent of votes counted as of 10:15 p.m., Ford led 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent, with nearly 255,000 votes tallied at that point. Spartz had not publicly conceded as of late Tuesday, local station WRTV's count coverage reported, and the AP call came as the count neared completion after midnight.

Source: Indiana Capital Chronicle — Ford declares victory over Spartz, Nov 3-4, 2026

An Upset in a District Republicans Redrew to Keep

The 5th District runs from Indianapolis's northern suburbs — Carmel, Fishers and Noblesville in Hamilton County — into north-central Indiana, taking in Anderson, Muncie and Marion. It is territory Donald Trump carried by nearly 17 percentage points in 2024, and Spartz won re-election that year by more than 18 points, after Republican state lawmakers redrew Indiana's congressional map in 2021 in a process that made the seat more reliably Republican. No Democrat has held the seat in decades. Ford's win reverses all of that in a single cycle, and it moves Indiana's nine-member U.S. House delegation from a 7-2 Republican advantage to 6-3, the Indiana Capital Chronicle reported, with the state's eight other incumbents holding their seats.

"Tonight, Hoosiers made history, and they sent a message that will be heard far beyond Indiana's 5th District," Ford said in his victory statement. "This victory belongs to every person who has felt ignored by Washington, every family struggling to make ends meet and every voter who refused to believe that change was impossible." He added: "Tonight, voters proved that no seat belongs to a political party. It belongs to the people. Whether you voted for me or not, I will fight for you."

How a 'Likely Republican' Seat Slipped Away

The signs were there for months. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the 5th District to its list of competitive races in August. An internal poll commissioned by Ford's campaign over the summer put Spartz ahead only 48 percent to 46 percent, inside the margin of error, and an October survey by the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC put a generic Republican at 48 percent and a Democrat at 47 percent. Days before the election, the Cook Political Report moved the race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican," and the Wall Street Journal had identified the contest as an early bellwether of the national night. Spartz herself saw it coming: in an October interview she described an "extremely difficult political environment," pointing to economic concerns, population changes in the district and the risk of lower Republican turnout in a midterm, and said, "So the political environment is challenging, and we are not taking this election for granted."

Ford, first elected to the Indiana Senate in 2018, campaigned on household affordability, healthcare and government accountability, criticised Trump's tariffs for their effect on Indiana families, farmers and businesses, and promised to protect Medicaid funding and rural hospitals and to lower prescription drug costs. On housing he proposed restricting purchases by large corporations and international investors, and he backed requiring data centres to cover their own utility and water costs instead of shifting them onto existing customers. "All across the 5th district, I hear families talk about the high cost of groceries, utilities and gas," he said before the election. Spartz campaigned on federal spending reductions, healthcare changes and a more accountable federal government: "I want to finish major reforms I have started, particularly fixing healthcare, addressing our unsustainable national debt and overhauling Congress's broken budget process," she said in October, alongside stronger border enforcement and changes to legal immigration. The final weeks grew contentious, with the candidates trading accusations over Spartz's family stock transactions and campaign advertising — allegations she disputed.

Two Political Firsts, One Seat

Ford, a two-term state senator from Indianapolis who has represented Senate District 29 since 2018, now heads to Washington after eight years in the state legislature. His first election was itself an upset: he defeated longtime Republican state Sen. Mike Delph to become the first openly gay member of the Indiana General Assembly, and he won re-election in 2022 with 51.7 percent of the vote. He has been a prominent Democratic voice on education, healthcare and government accountability, and he now becomes the first openly gay member of Congress from Indiana. Spartz's defeat ends a six-year House career that was itself historic: born in Ukraine's Chernihiv region, she moved to the United States in 2000, worked as a certified public accountant, served in the Indiana Senate and in 2020 became the first Ukrainian-born member of Congress, winning the open seat after Republican Susan Brooks retired. Her first victory that year was narrow; she later announced she would not seek re-election in 2024, reversed that decision in a high-profile about-turn, survived a contested primary and won another term — before this year's suburban wave ended her run.

For families in the district's fast-growing suburbs — including Hamilton County's large and diversifying communities, and the trucking, warehouse and logistics workforce that moves freight through the Indianapolis crossroads — the issues Ford ran on are kitchen-table ones: grocery, gas and utility bills, what data-centre growth does to local power and water costs, and what tariffs do to Indiana farms and factories. Ford pledged regular town halls and stronger congressional oversight of federal agencies. Whether a first-term Democrat in a district his party has not held in decades can deliver on that list — and hold the seat in 2028 — is now the district's next story.