The national average price of regular gasoline in the United States fell below $4 a gallon on Tuesday, November 10, for the first time since July, according to AAA, which put the average at $3.9788 a gallon early Tuesday. It is the first sub-$4 reading in 114 days, and it lands a little over two weeks before the Thanksgiving travel rush.
Source: OilPrice / AAA
The drop is real but relative. AAA's figure is down about 17 cents from a week earlier, when the average was $4.1493, and down about 39 cents from a month earlier, when it was $4.3669. Prices have fallen almost every week since peaking at $4.494 a gallon on September 24. Even so, the average remains roughly 20 percent above seasonal norms and well above the roughly $3.07 a gallon recorded at this time last year — before 2026, the national average had never exceeded $4 in the month of November.
Why prices are falling now
Three forces are pushing pump prices down at the same time, according to AAA and analysts cited by NPR. Crude oil has retreated sharply: Brent futures fell 13 percent last week, the steepest weekly decline since April 2020, and briefly traded below $90 a barrel on Tuesday as Middle East oil exports recovered to roughly 80 to 85 percent of prewar levels. Refineries have switched to cheaper winter-blend fuel, which typically trims 10 to 30 cents a gallon in the winter months. And seasonal demand is fading as colder weather ends boating, RV and road-trip season.
"Temperatures are getting colder," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "People who have boats and RVs are probably done for the year. I would say, by Thanksgiving, so long as we don't get any wild cards geopolitically, the national average could be $3.75 a gallon." GasBuddy's own station-level average crossed below $4 a day earlier, at $3.96 on Monday, its first such reading since early August, and De Haan noted that sub-$3 prices are already appearing at stations in Indiana, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.
A country of two gas prices
The national average hides a wide regional split. AAA data shows drivers in Nevada, California and Hawaii are still paying near $6 a gallon, while most southern states are below $3.70. For Punjabi diaspora families concentrated in California's Central Valley — where pump prices remain among the nation's highest — the national headline offers little direct relief at their local stations, even as relatives in Texas, Georgia or North Carolina see prices under $3 at some outlets.
Diesel is not following gasoline down
The relief is much thinner for diesel, the fuel that moves America's freight. AAA put the national diesel average at about $6.15 a gallon on Tuesday — $6.1572 in its daily reading — down only about 13 cents from a month ago and far above the $3.7389 recorded a year earlier. Analysts link diesel's stubbornness to the wars in Iran and Ukraine: Russia is ordinarily a major diesel exporter, but that supply has largely dried up as its refineries have been damaged.
"When a country like Russia isn't exporting diesel, that is very impactful for the global market. So diesel prices — they will come down but they will still remain very elevated," De Haan said. That matters directly for Punjabi-Canadian and Punjabi-American truckers and owner-operators, whose fuel bills are set by diesel, not by the gasoline average making headlines.
Heating oil and freight: the hidden pass-through
High diesel is also pushing up heating oil costs in the Northeast, because heating oil is a close cousin of diesel; mild fall weather has kept those bills in check so far, but a blast of cold air could push them higher. And higher diesel feeds into the price of everything moved by truck, train or ship. "You're starting to see higher freight costs get passed through," said economist Mike Reid of RBC Capital Markets. "We've seen it show up notably in goods that are heavily imported — apparel, recreation goods, IT equipment."
Tuesday's Labor Department report showed consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October, more than forecasters expected, with housing accounting for about a third of the increase and grocery prices up sharply. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned the same day that energy shocks may have more lasting inflation effects than before the pandemic. Cheaper gasoline helps, but it is not yet cancelling out the wider cost-of-living squeeze.
What happens next
The next marker is Thanksgiving: if crude holds below $90 and no new geopolitical shock hits supply, GasBuddy expects the national average to approach $3.70 to $3.75 a gallon by the holiday — which, paradoxically, could still make this year's drive to family the most expensive Thanksgiving trip on record for the season. AAA publishes daily national averages, so drivers will see within days whether the sub-$4 level holds or proves to be a brief dip.