NATO is considering its biggest overhaul of military planning in at least two decades, putting the defence of Europe against Russia ahead of maintaining additional forces for missions abroad, Politico reported on Wednesday, November 11.

Source: Politico via Bytes Europe (Kyiv Post)

Four NATO diplomats familiar with a draft planning document said the alliance's 32 members could end a longstanding requirement to prepare for both a major European war and several smaller overseas crisis-management operations at the same time. Instead, members would plan for either scenario, the diplomats said.

A senior NATO official stressed that the proposal would not eliminate crisis-response missions, and existing operations in Kosovo and Iraq would not automatically be affected, according to reporting summarising the Politico account.

Source: Eastora News

How NATO planning works

The proposed change is part of talks on NATO's Political Guidance, which sets priorities for military capabilities, equipment and spending. NATO's defence planning runs on a four-year cycle: the guidance establishes the number, scale and types of operations the alliance should be able to conduct, and those choices are then translated into capability targets for individual allies, steering national investment in equipment, personnel and readiness.

Allies aim to agree on the guidance by February 2027, with updated capability requirements due in 2029. The United States and allies in northern and eastern Europe favour greater emphasis on deterring Russia, while some southern European members want NATO to retain a substantial role in overseas crisis response, the diplomats said. Negotiations remain at an early stage, and no final change has been approved.

Why Russia comes first in the draft

NATO already identifies Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security” in its public defence policy. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has strengthened its eastern flank, expanding its forward presence to nine multinational battlegroups and developing regional defence plans with forces assigned to protect specific allies.

The reported review follows separate work on plans for strikes deep inside Russia if Moscow attacks NATO territory — an approach developed under Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Alexus Grynkewich that draws on lessons from Ukraine: defeating an invasion requires disrupting the military system sustaining it, not only stopping advancing troops. Military planning, however, does not guarantee political authorisation, and analysts cited in the reporting questioned whether European leaders would approve the operations commanders consider necessary.

What happens next is procedural but consequential: if allies settle the Political Guidance by February 2027, national militaries will plan, buy and train against a Europe-first scenario — fewer spare forces earmarked for faraway crises, and more weight on the eastern flank, air defence, long-range strike and rapid reinforcement of the Baltic states.