The United States has warned Madagascar against deepening its military ties with Russia, saying similar partnerships between Moscow and military-led governments in West Africa have failed to improve security and risk fuelling instability across the continent, in an online briefing by US Africa Command (AFRICOM) deputy commander Lt Gen John Brennan reported by the BBC and African outlets.

Source: AAN TV

“We are concerned about Russia wanting to proliferate [the Sahel model] elsewhere across the continent,” Brennan told reporters. “Madagascar sits in a location that is extremely important, as is Mozambique, and we don't want to see those models be applied in those two locations.” He said US partners were “free to partner with whom they wish” but urged them to understand the potential risks. No immediate punitive measures were signalled against Madagascar.

What is the “Sahel model” Washington is warning against?

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — all under military rule — severed ties with their Western partners and turned to Russia for military support in their fight against jihadist groups, blaming their former partners for failing to contain the violence. Militant attacks have continued despite the closer military ties with Russia, and Brennan argued that record is the cautionary tale: a model that, in Washington's assessment, has not delivered durable security gains and could exacerbate instability if it is replicated beyond the Sahel.

How Madagascar moved toward Moscow

Russia has expanded its military cooperation with Madagascar since the military seized power in October 2025, supplying weapons and military instructors. In December 2025, a Russian military aircraft reportedly arrived carrying 40 personnel and 43 crates of weapons, according to information provided by the country's National Assembly Speaker, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, to Bloomberg. President Michaël Randrianirina visited Moscow in February — the first official visit to Russia by a Malagasy leader in nearly 50 years — and at the Russia-Africa summit last month, Madagascar and Russia signed several cooperation agreements covering defence, tourism and trade. Randrianirina has since reiterated his support for stronger ties between Russia and African countries. Madagascar has not publicly responded to Brennan's comments.

Why the Mozambique Channel matters

Brennan also raised concerns about security in the Mozambique Channel, the shipping route between Madagascar, Mozambique and mainland Africa that is important to international trade. He said Islamic State-linked fighters in northern Mozambique were growing their maritime capacity — a concern echoed in reporting on his early-November regional tour, during which he led a US delegation to Madagascar for talks on maritime security and defence cooperation — and cited recent piracy-related incidents along the coast. Protecting the channel from groups seeking to disrupt global trade, he argued, is a shared interest that a Russian-style security partnership would not serve.

What happens next

Watch for: any public reply from Antananarivo, which has so far repeated its support for stronger Russia-Africa ties rather than answering the warning; whether Washington follows the briefing with offers — maritime-security help for the Mozambique Channel is the obvious lever, after Brennan's early-November delegation discussed exactly that in Madagascar; and whether Mozambique, named alongside Madagascar in the warning, becomes the next test of how far Russia's African security network spreads from the Sahel to the Indian Ocean coast. For shipping, the stakes are concrete: the Mozambique Channel carries a significant share of traffic between Asia, the Gulf and southern Africa — the same Indian Ocean routes Punjabi and Indian seafarers and Gulf-based workers depend on — and Washington is now openly contesting who provides security along them.