New Zealand's general election is heading for its closest finish in years, with more than 80 per cent of votes counted and the incumbent conservative government hovering on the brink of a wafer-thin majority that could return it to power, the Associated Press reported. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National party and its coalition partners — the libertarian ACT party and the populist NZ First — were close to the slimmest possible return, by just one seat.

Source: Associated Press via Glasgow Times

With 91.2 per cent of voting places counted, National, ACT and New Zealand First together held 66 seats in a 129-seat Parliament, where 65 seats are needed to govern, according to the Electoral Commission's projections reported by AsiaToday. National took 41 of those seats, ACT 13 and NZ First 12 — a drop for National and a gain for its two partners, whose leaders David Seymour and Winston Peters will expect greater influence in any new coalition.

The party vote is just as tight. After 86 per cent of voting places had reported, National led with 29.4 per cent against Labour's 29.1 per cent — both major parties under 30 per cent, underscoring pre-election polling that showed little public enthusiasm for either. The Greens recorded 13.3 per cent, ACT a record 11.0 per cent, NZ First 9.8 per cent and the centrist Opportunity party 5.9 per cent, enough to enter Parliament for the first time. Te Pāti Māori polled only 0.6 per cent of the party vote but won five electorate seats.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins, arriving at party headquarters in Upper Hutt outside Wellington, did not concede defeat. “Tonight, New Zealand has spoken,” he told supporters. “It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you've said.” The left bloc — Labour on 35 seats, the Greens celebrating a best-ever 16, and Te Pāti Māori on five — holds 56 seats, and even with Opportunity's seven it reaches only 63, short of a majority on current numbers.

The night has also produced a possible shock exit for some of National's most senior figures, with emerging results suggesting the incumbent finance minister Nicola Willis, Speaker Gerry Brownlee, and defence and justice minister Paul Goldsmith could all lose their places in parliament. Opportunity's leader, 38-year-old Qiulae Wong, has said she would negotiate first with whichever major party won the most votes if she held the tiebreaker — although Mr Luxon has ruled out governing with her party, and the right bloc may not need her support.

What happens next turns on the special votes — ballots cast overseas or outside a voter's home electorate, more than 172,000 of which had already been recorded. They are counted only in the final verified tally due on November 27, and they have historically favoured the left: in the past four elections National lost one or two seats when special votes were counted, while left-wing parties gained between one and three. On a one-seat margin, that pattern alone could overturn the result. Voting began on October 26, nearly 3.8 million people were eligible, and results from 95 per cent of ballots are expected by the end of Saturday night, after which coalition negotiations could still take weeks.

Earlier in the evening, at 60 per cent counted, the race was already too close to call, with the two big parties swapping the lead through the night. Read the earlier count report