New Zealand's party leaders made their final appeals to voters on Thursday, three days before a general election that final polls show is too close to call — with neither the ruling right bloc nor the opposition left bloc able to form a government alone, and a newcomer centrist party, Opportunity, positioned as a potential kingmaker, Reuters and The Guardian reported.

Source: Reuters

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, campaigning in Hawke's Bay, told reporters the election would likely go down to the wire. "The message is pretty simple — it's going to be tight and close," he said, urging voters to "party vote National" and give his party another three years to "complete the job", Reuters reported. Opposition leader Chris Hipkins said Labour hoped to form a Labour-led government before Christmas: "The best way to ensure there is a change in government... is to give your party vote to Labour so we are the biggest party."

Source: Reuters

Two big parties below 30 percent

A final push from National and Labour has done little to budge their cratering popularity, with both parties sitting below 30 percent in polls released this week, The Guardian reported: the 1News-Verian poll has National on 30 percent and Labour on 29 percent, while a Taxpayers' Union/Curia poll had National on 28.9 percent and Labour on 28.4 percent. Across both polls the left-wing Greens polled between 14 and 16 percent, the libertarian ACT party 10 percent, the populist New Zealand First between 8 and 9 percent and Te Pati Maori about 1 percent. Under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) system voters cast two votes — one for a party, one for a local candidate — and small parties often hold the balance of power: in 2023 National won 38 percent and still needed New Zealand First and ACT to govern, The Guardian noted.

The kingmaker who may not be wanted

The numbers indicate neither bloc will have enough seats to govern, so their fate could fall to Opportunity, which polls show could clear the 5 percent threshold to become kingmaker, The Guardian reported. The party, led by businesswoman Qiulae Wong, 38, has said it will negotiate first with the party that secures the highest number of votes. But Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity numerous times, saying its proposed land tax runs contrary to National's "no new taxes" pledge — and if he keeps that promise, National faces the possibility of becoming the first one-term National-led government since the party was founded in 1936, The Guardian said.

The final-week blow to Luxon's campaign came from the jobs data: unemployment at 5.7 percent, an 11-year high, in the September quarter. Read: New Zealand Jobless Rate Hits 5.7%, an 11-Year High, Days Before the Election

An election about the cost of living

The six-week campaign has been defined by high living costs, a wobbling healthcare system, gangs, personal attacks and complex vote-splitting strategies, The Guardian reported. An Ipsos survey published this week found inflation and the cost of living remained voters' biggest concern; Reuters, citing the same survey series, put healthcare and hospitals second at 45 percent, petrol prices third at 31 percent, ahead of the economy at 30 percent and unemployment at 19 percent. "This was very much an election about the economy, so mostly cost of living," Mona Krewel, a senior political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, told Reuters. Early voting began on October 26 and more than a million New Zealanders have already voted — up about 30 percent on 2023 — which political scientist Lara Greaves told The Guardian she suspects reflects the closeness of the race.

What happens next

New Zealanders vote on Saturday, November 7. Political commentators expect it could take weeks to form a government as support grows for smaller parties, Reuters said. Polls also indicate several possible overhang seats — where a party wins more electorates than its party-vote share — and if there is no clear winner on the night, parties must wait for the final count due November 27, when special votes, including overseas votes, could "change the whole map of the house", Greaves told The Guardian. Either way, she said, whoever ends up governing faces a "tough ride".