This assessment builds on Monday's Ukrainian drone strike on the Kirishi refinery, Russia's second-largest, which set the plant on fire and killed one woman, according to the Leningrad region governor. Read the earlier Kirishi refinery story
Renewed Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries since late October have reduced Russia's oil refining capacity by about 30 percent, two industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday, November 10.
Source: Reuters via Devdiscourse
Ukraine's attacks disrupted operations and caused emergency situations at nine of Russia's 35 major refineries over the past week, according to the industry sources and officials cited by Reuters.
The sources put the combined daily nameplate capacity of the refineries affected since late October, including three major plants in central Russia, at around 300,000 metric tons — yaani about 2.2 million barrels a day — compared with Russia's total primary refining capacity of about 930,000 tons per day.
At the end of October, Russian refineries were processing about 700,000 tons, or 5 million barrels, of crude per day, the sources said. They estimate the actual reduction in crude processing could be up to 200,000 tons per day. The affected plants include refineries in Ryazan, Yaroslavl and the Volga region.
The Kirishi strike and the failed energy ceasefire
Ukraine stepped up strikes on Russian refineries from the end of October, when a ceasefire on attacks on energy facilities — announced by US President Donald Trump between Kyiv and Moscow — failed to take hold, Reuters reported.
On Monday, a Ukrainian drone struck the Kirishi oil refinery, Russia's second-largest, in an overnight attack that set the refinery on fire, the governor of the Leningrad region said, adding that one woman had been killed in the attack.
In an article published on Tuesday in the Russian daily Kommersant, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine was ignoring Trump's calls to stop strikes on Russian energy targets.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Kyiv was continuing to launch attacks on targets associated with Russia's oil sector in response to Russian strikes on energy targets. He said Ukrainian power plants, energy networks, heating systems and water supply systems were subject to constant attacks, and that Moscow had refused the de-escalation steps partners had talked about.
Fuel shortages at home, diesel exports abroad
The attacks add to Moscow's difficulties in addressing domestic fuel shortages even as Russia ships diesel to international markets under an export deal with US President Donald Trump, Reuters reported. UNITED24 Media, summarising the same Reuters reporting, noted that the loss of nameplate capacity does not automatically mean an equal fall in actual processing, because refineries do not always run at full capacity.
Source: UNITED24 Media via EuropeSays
Refining is where crude oil becomes petrol, diesel and jet fuel. A sustained 30 percent capacity hit pressures Russian fuel supplies, prices and export earnings at the same time as US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks resume in Abu Dhabi — and it lands while global oil markets are already on edge over the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.
What happens next will depend on repair times at the nine disrupted plants, whether Kyiv sustains the pace of strikes, and whether the Abu Dhabi talks produce any new understanding on energy targets. Neither the capacity estimate nor the damage at individual plants has been independently verified beyond the industry sources and officials cited by Reuters.