ARCADIA, Florida — The Peace River at Arcadia crossed into major flood stage in the early hours of Thursday, November 5, and was still rising toward an evening crest that forecasters say will beat the town's 1998 record, as the slow-moving flood disaster that began with record rain over Halloween weekend pushed a second wave of water through DeSoto County.
Source: National Weather Service Tampa Bay
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Water Prediction Service gauge on the Peace River at State Road 70 in Arcadia (station ARCF1) read 16.08 feet at 2:30 a.m. EST on Thursday and 16.21 feet at 5:30 a.m., above the 16.0-foot major flood stage for this stretch of river. Flood stage here is 11.0 feet, moderate flood stage is 14.0 feet and action stage is 9.0 feet — meaning the river on Thursday morning stood more than five feet above the level at which flooding begins.
The National Weather Service office in Tampa Bay forecasts a crest near 16.5 feet around 7 p.m. EST on Thursday — half a foot above the 16.0-foot crest recorded on February 21, 1998. At 16 feet, the Weather Service says up to 60 homes in the River Acres community are flooded, and the Woman's Club and American Legion buildings in Arcadia are affected. The Flood Warning for the Peace River at Arcadia continues until further notice.
A river that doubled in a day
The rise has been relentless all week. The gauge read 9.6 feet on Monday afternoon, 13.1 feet on Tuesday afternoon, 14.5 feet on Wednesday morning and 15.7 feet by Wednesday evening. Local station WENG Radio reported that the river at State Road 70 roughly doubled in height in 24 hours this week, from about seven feet to nearly fourteen, on its way through moderate flood stage and into major flood.
Source: WENG Radio
In Arcadia, the flooding is visible at DeSoto Veterans Memorial Park, where benches, monuments and parking lots are under water and residents have been putting boats in over what used to be grass, WENG reported. DeSoto County Emergency Operations Center spokesman Dennis O'Hara told the station the county's main concern is duration: the river will remain in major flood stage for an extended period and will take a long time to come back down, leaving homes, roads and daily travel around Arcadia affected for days. County officials have compared the conditions to Hurricane Ian in 2022.
Emergency officials repeat the standing warning for all flooded Florida roads this week: six inches of moving water can knock a person down and one foot of moving water can sweep a vehicle away. If water is rising around you, move to higher ground and call 911 in an emergency.
The wider Florida flood emergency
The Peace River crest is the inland, slow-motion second act of the same storm system that struck Florida's east coast first. A low-pressure system parked over the state from October 31 to November 2 dropped almost 24 inches of rain in 24 hours on Malabar and almost 20 inches on Palm Bay — totals the National Weather Service characterised as a 1-in-1,000-year event — and sheriff's deputies and state Fish and Wildlife officers carried out about 160 rescues in Brevard County. Governor Ron DeSantis declared a flood emergency for seven counties, including DeSoto, in Executive Order 26-227 on November 2, and expanded it to 14 counties with Executive Order 26-228 on Wednesday, November 4.
DeSoto County declared its own local state of emergency at 2:30 p.m. on Monday, and on Wednesday the county offered sand for sandbags at its Road and Bridge yard, 1894 NE McKay Street in Arcadia, telling residents to bring a photo ID and a shovel. Neighbouring gauges tell the same story of a region saturated end to end: the Peace River at Zolfo Springs in Hardee County was at 16.07 feet on Thursday morning, just into minor flood on a 16.0-foot flood stage after peaking near 16.6 feet; Horse Creek near Arcadia peaked at 14.2 feet and is falling; and the Alafia River at Lithia, which matched its October 12, 1936 crest of 13.4 feet on Wednesday, slipped back below its 13.0-foot flood stage early Thursday. Further east, the St. Johns River near Cocoa was at 16.85 feet in moderate flood on Thursday morning, with a major-flood crest of 17.0 feet forecast for Friday evening.
What happens next
Thursday evening's crest is the peak, not the end. The Weather Service river forecast has the Peace River at Arcadia holding near 16.5 feet into Friday, easing only slowly to about 16.4 feet early Saturday and 16.0 feet by Sunday morning, and not falling below its 11.0-foot flood stage until around the morning of Saturday, November 7 at the Zolfo Springs gauge's faster schedule — for Arcadia, officials warn high water will persist for days. Residents in River Acres and along the river in DeSoto County should expect flooded access roads, continued county alerts, and a long cleanup once the water finally recedes. Awaaz Punjab will update this story as new gauge readings and county advisories are issued.