The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, but stayed at a level economists read as a firming — not weakening — labour market, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, November 12.

Source: Reuters

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ended November 7. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 195,000 claims, so the reading came in 5,000 higher than expected — but still at the top of a range that has held at or below 200,000 since mid-September.

Source: Reuters

The previous week's figure was revised up by 2,000, from 189,000 to 191,000, and the four-week moving average of initial claims — the measure economists watch because it smooths out weekly swings — was unchanged at 195,250, the Department of Labor figures showed.

Source: US Department of Labor via FXStreet

The other half of the report pointed the opposite way. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid — continuing claims, a widely used proxy for hiring — fell 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.697 million during the week ended October 31, down from a revised 1.717 million. The unemployment rate among workers covered by unemployment insurance held at 1.1%.

Layoffs remain near their lowest level since 1969

Claims have stayed at or below 200,000 since mid-September and remain close to the 189,000 level touched in mid-July, the lowest since 1969, raising the prospect that the labour market could be tightening again rather than loosening, Reuters reported. In plain terms: employers are still holding on to workers, and layoffs remain scarce, even though the headline number ticked up.

The claims report lands a week after the government reported a surge in nonfarm payrolls in October — employers added 165,000 jobs, well above expectations — and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in September, with August and September payroll figures revised up by a combined 84,000.

Why one weekly number matters for the December Fed meeting

Thursday's release is the latest data point in a debate Awaaz Punjab reported on November 10, when the October Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected: consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core prices — excluding food and energy — rose 0.3% for a third straight month, both above forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published no year-over-year comparison for October because it collected no price data in October 2025 during last year's government shutdown.

Federal Reserve officials split publicly over what to do next. Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in London hours before the inflation data, said that if core inflation again came in around 0.3%, a half-point rate increase should be considered at the December meeting — and core then printed exactly 0.3%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Federal Open Market Committee needs to implement at least two more quarter-point increases, and possibly faster this winter than in the fall. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the inflation report “borderline disturbing” in a PBS NewsHour interview, while Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson backed continued gradual tightening.

The Fed's current target range is 3.75%–4.00%: the committee raised rates by a quarter point in September — its first increase since 2023 — and held steady in October. Against that backdrop, a labour market that is neither shedding jobs nor cooling gives the hawks one less reason to wait: Thursday's claims data does nothing to argue against another increase, and the fall in continuing claims suggests people who do lose work are still finding new jobs.

For working families — including the Punjabi diaspora households across California, New York, New Jersey and Texas who follow this desk, and the truckers who finance rigs and trailers at rates tied to the Fed's benchmark — the practical stakes are direct. Every additional quarter point keeps mortgage, auto and equipment-loan costs higher for longer, even as a firm job market protects incomes. Pay is part of the squeeze: average hourly pay rose 3.1% over the past year to $38.00, while consumer prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months through September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.

What happens next: the October Producer Price Index is due Friday, November 13, and the November employment report is scheduled for December 4, days before the Fed meets on December 8–9. The claims figures released Thursday are advance estimates and may be revised in the next weekly release.