American trucking is sending two signals at once. Trucking jobs held steady in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while spot linehaul rates were up to 35% higher than a year earlier during the first week of November, according to DAT Freight and Analytics figures reported by Land Line Media on Monday, November 9. Van and reefer rates are now higher than in every year of the past nine except 2021, when rates spiked in the wake of the pandemic.

Source: Land Line Media

In a normal freight cycle, rates that strong would pull new drivers and new trucks into the market and payrolls would climb. That is not happening. Analysts say the explanation sits on the supply side: as ACT Research noted in its For-Hire Trucking Index, capacity — the number of drivers and trucks actually available to haul freight — has been moving the market throughout 2026, rather than freight demand.

Fewer drivers are available to haul the freight

Two federal enforcement shifts are shrinking the driver pool. Since April 2025, tens of thousands of drivers have been placed out of service for English-proficiency violations, Land Line reported. Separately, new federal restrictions on non-domiciled commercial driver's licences are estimated to take out up to 200,000 drivers as licences come up for renewal. Under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's rule, which took effect in March 2026, eligibility for a non-domiciled CDL is limited to drivers holding H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visas, and an employment authorization document alone no longer qualifies; industry estimates cited by C.H. Robinson put the number of current holders who could lose renewal eligibility at roughly 194,000 over five years, with 30,000 to 40,000 drivers exiting a year. The rule remains in force while a court challenge is decided.

DAT's load-board data shows the squeeze directly: truck posts are 24% to 34% below a year ago, while load posts are 22% to 47% higher. There is more freight chasing fewer posted trucks, and that imbalance — not a boom in shipping demand — is what is holding rates up.

Record diesel is eating the rate gains

The relief carriers waited for through a four-year freight recession arrived in the second quarter as rates rose sharply — and was promptly eaten into when the conflict in Iran sent diesel prices soaring to successive record highs, squeezing the cash flow of smaller carriers. Higher rates have helped smaller operations absorb ultra-high diesel prices, but many were already hanging by a thread after the multiyear downturn.

The jobs are shuffling, not growing

Underneath the flat headline, the employment mix is moving. Trucking jobs in long-distance truckload freight fell by 500 in September, while less-than-truckload employment rose by 800. Avery Vise of FTR suggested larger carriers may be absorbing drivers from smaller carriers that close — a shift the government survey cannot fully see, because it counts workers on payrolls and leaves out owner-operators. A small carrier shutting down while its drivers move to a bigger fleet can show up as no change at all. David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said stable employment points 'neither to further attrition nor to growth in truckload capacity,' with rates doing 'just enough to keep capacity steady' despite weak demand, regulatory pressure, elevated diesel costs and uncertainty around the EPA's 2027 engine rules.

The strain shows even at carriers whose revenue is improving. PAM Transport's parent, PAMT, last week posted a $5 million operating loss for the third quarter — its eighth consecutive operating loss — even as operating revenue rose $12.3 million year over year and its rate per mile improved 6%, Trucking Dive reported on Monday. President and CEO Lance Stewart said cumulative cost increases continue to outpace pricing improvements, and that higher net fuel costs reflected the lag of a week or more between sharp weekly diesel increases and the fuel surcharges carriers can bill customers; fuel surcharge revenue itself rose nearly $9.3 million year over year.

Source: Trucking Dive

What it means for Punjabi truckers

For the Punjabi owner-operators and small fleets who make up a large share of long-haul drivers on corridors such as California's I-5 and Highway 99, Texas's I-10 and I-45, and the Midwest's I-80, the split market cuts both ways. Drivers who are still running and fully licensed can command the strongest spot rates since 2021 outside the pandemic spike. But the same market punishes anyone exposed on the other side: diesel at record highs, surcharges that lag a week behind the pump price, and — for drivers holding non-domiciled CDLs — a renewal wall that can end a driving career on a licence expiry date rather than on the road. Owner-operators are also invisible in the flat jobs headline: when a one-truck operation parks, no payroll statistic records it.

What happens next

Three things will decide whether the rate strength lasts. First, diesel: if prices stay at record levels, more small carriers are expected to fold, pushing their drivers — and their freight — to larger fleets. Second, regulation: fleets ordered preliminary Class 8 trucks of just 13,500 in October, down 45% from a year ago, a drop ACT Research attributed largely to uncertainty over the EPA's proposed 2027 engine emission rules, which the agency proposed in July but has not finalized — so new capacity is not being built either. Third, the courts: the non-domiciled CDL rule stays in force while judges decide its challenge, meaning the driver supply will keep tightening licence by licence into 2027. For now, analysts' verdict is that current rates are just enough to hold the line — no hiring boom, and no collapse.