Ethiopia has revised the size of its economy up by nearly 60% to $201 billion after rebasing its national accounts, according to a government presentation seen by Reuters and reported on Thursday, November 5 — a statistical overhaul that could shift key debt metrics as the country tries to conclude a long-running debt restructuring.

Source: Reuters via Sowetan, Nov 5

Ethiopia's 2024/25 economy was revised up by 59.2% to $201.42 billion after the base year for calculating GDP was shifted to 2024/25 from 2015/16. The government put the size of the economy at $210.7 billion in 2025/26, according to the presentation seen by Reuters. In birr terms, nominal GDP for 2024/25 rose from 15.09 trillion birr under the old framework to 24.03 trillion birr, BusinessDay reported, with preliminary 2025/26 estimates at about 31.86 trillion birr and real growth estimated at 7.7%.

Source: Reuters via Sowetan, Nov 5; BusinessDay, Nov 5

With the new figures, Ethiopia now ranks as Africa's fifth-biggest economy, Bloomberg reported, overtaking Morocco and Kenya and sitting behind South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria in the ranking based on the revised accounts. Finance Minister Fitsum Assefa said in a post on X that GDP in the fiscal year that ended in July was the equivalent of $210.7 billion, and that the previous 2015-16 base year “no longer captured the economy's structural transformation, sectoral expansion and emerging activities such as digital finance and services.”

Source: Bloomberg via Moneyweb, Nov 5

What the rebasing counts that the old series missed

Rebasing an economy is an internationally accepted practice, recently undertaken by Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, aimed at capturing emerging industries and other economic shifts, Reuters reported. Ethiopia's presentation cited the need to accurately capture the economic input from digital financial services, ride-sharing platforms and “massive solar installations.” The new data series draws on a recent agriculture census, household surveys and, for the first time, incorporates data from state-owned enterprises and non-profit institutions, Bloomberg reported; the exercise began in January 2026 and was completed in September, according to BusinessDay.

Source: Reuters via Sowetan, Nov 5; Bloomberg via Moneyweb, Nov 5; BusinessDay, Nov 5

With the new estimates, the services sector — which includes transport and contributions from Africa's biggest carrier, Ethiopian Airlines — accounted for the largest share of the economy at almost 36%, followed by agriculture at 32% and industry at 30%, Bloomberg reported. BusinessDay stressed that the increase does not represent an equivalent expansion in actual production: it reflects a broader measurement of economic activity that was already taking place but had not been fully captured in the national accounts.

Source: Bloomberg via Moneyweb, Nov 5; BusinessDay, Nov 5

Why it matters for Ethiopia's debt talks

The rebasing will increase Ethiopia's nominal GDP and lower its debt-to-GDP and tax-to-GDP ratios, according to the presentation, while boosting its ranking among Africa's biggest economies. “Clearer economic data directly feeds into better credit ratings, lowers the risk premium on future international sovereign borrowing, and strengthens foreign direct investment inflows,” the presentation said. Ethiopia is approaching the end of a years-long external debt overhaul; holders of its $1 billion Eurobond approved a preliminary restructuring agreement in August.

Source: Reuters via Sowetan, Nov 5

Analysts cautioned that the better ratios are arithmetic, not cash. The new data will mechanically reduce Ethiopia's debt-to-GDP metrics, potentially improving headline debt sustainability indicators as the government continues restructuring its loans under the G20 Common Framework, Oxford Economics said in a research note. “However, outstanding debt, servicing costs, and foreign-currency financing requirements remain unchanged,” Oxford Economics economist Alexander Venter said.

Source: Oxford Economics via Bloomberg / Moneyweb, Nov 5

The birr weakened steeply in 2024 after the government allowed it to trade freely against the dollar as part of reforms needed to secure an International Monetary Fund programme, Reuters noted. Africa's second-most populous country projects economic growth of 10.2% in the current fiscal year, boosted by reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and opening previously restricted sectors, including telecommunications and banking, to international investors, Bloomberg reported.

Source: Reuters via Sowetan, Nov 5; Bloomberg via Moneyweb, Nov 5

What happens next

The revised accounts now feed directly into Ethiopia's endgame with its creditors: the debt-to-GDP and tax-to-GDP ratios used in the G20 Common Framework restructuring, and in the IMF-supported reform programme, will be recalculated on the bigger economy. Whether rating agencies and investors reward the clearer data — as the government presentation predicts, through better credit ratings and a lower risk premium — will be tested the next time Ethiopia borrows internationally, and when the IMF folds the new series into its own estimates.