Iran's government has warned of worsening domestic gas shortages this winter as a result of damage to processing facilities in the war with the United States, and said cuts in supply could follow if consumption runs high.

Source: Reuters via Devdiscourse

“If the level of consumption is high it is possible that gas cuts will occur all over the country including in Tehran,” government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told a news conference in Tehran on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

Mohajerani forecast a shortfall of 430 million cubic metres in gas supply this year, compared with about 300 million cubic metres in previous years — a gap widened, officials say, by war damage on top of a shortage Iran already faced every winter.

National Iranian Gas Company managing director Saeed Tavakoli said this month there had been damage to four processing plants during the first phase of the conflict early this year, Reuters reported. The war began with a US and Israeli air campaign on February 28.

The National Security Journal, reporting the same Reuters account, said Iran's acting petroleum minister confirmed last week that the strikes knocked out a quarter of the country's gas production capacity and offered no timeline for restoring it, and that households and industry would both need to cut usage by 20 percent to get through the season.

Source: National Security Journal / Reuters

Save gas — or pay more

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref was cited by state news agency IRNA on Monday as saying gas prices could rise as a result of the shortage, Reuters reported. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has called for a nationwide campaign to cut gas use by at least 10 percent, with savers promised the proceeds in their bank accounts, the National Security Journal reported.

The National Iranian Gas Company warned last week that 11 of Iran's 31 provinces could face supply problems this winter. Iran was already experiencing gas shortages and power cuts before the February strikes, Reuters noted — the war has deepened a chronic winter problem rather than creating a new one.

What happens next

Tehran is also looking outward for supply: after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 5, security chief Mohsen Rezaei said the two countries discussed pipelines to ease Iran's shortages, the National Security Journal reported, and Iran has been negotiating gas imports from Russia under a memorandum first signed in 2024.

For ordinary Iranians, the test comes with the first cold snap: if households do not cut back, the government has now said publicly that cuts could reach the whole country — the capital included.