OLYMPIA, Washington — Washington voters have decided to keep a tax most of them will never pay. Initiative 645, the ballot measure that would have repealed the state's new 9.9% tax on income above $1 million — and banned state and local income taxes in the future — was failing decisively on Thursday, November 5, with nearly 58% of counted votes against repeal and about 42% in favour. Backers of the initiative conceded defeat, according to election reporting carried by the Associated Press, ending the most expensive ballot fight of Washington's 2026 election.

Source: KNKX Public Radio

The result preserves a revenue stream the state Office of Financial Management estimates at more than $11 billion over the tax's first three years. It also settles, for now, the defining fiscal argument of the year in a state with a large Punjabi and South Asian community in the Seattle-Tacoma corridor and the agricultural valleys — an argument about who should close Washington's budget gap: fewer than 1% of its highest earners, or everyone.

What Initiative 645 would have done

Initiative No. IP26-645 asked voters to undo Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, the law the Washington Legislature passed in March 2026 imposing a flat 9.9% tax on household income above a $1 million standard deduction. Governor Bob Ferguson signed the bill on March 30, 2026. The repeal measure went further than the tax itself: as the state Office of Financial Management's statement for the voters' guide put it, approving 645 would also have prohibited future state income tax measures — and would have cost the state an estimated $11.4 billion in revenue over state fiscal years 2027 to 2031.

Source: La Conner Community News / Washington Office of Financial Management

The campaign to put the repeal before voters was run by Let's Go Washington, the conservative political committee founded by Redmond businessman Brian Heywood. The group collected more than 500,000 voter signatures to qualify the measure for the November 3 ballot — FOX 13 Seattle put the figure at more than 511,000 — and argued that voters should reject any income-based tax before, as its supporters warned, the $1 million threshold could one day be lowered to reach ordinary earners.

How the vote broke down

The Spokesman-Review's results page, reported on November 4, showed the repeal failing 58.1% to 41.9%, with about 1.15 million votes against repeal and roughly 830,000 in favour. King County, the state's most populous county and home to Seattle, rejected the measure by roughly two to one — nearly 67-68% against — while Snohomish and Pierce counties also recorded clear majorities against repeal. Counting continues: Washington votes largely by mail, county canvassing boards update totals daily through mid-November, and the margin, at roughly 16 points, is far beyond what late ballots can reverse.

Source: The Spokesman-Review via QUE

“Washingtonians understood one thing, we're not going to give tax breaks to millionaires when we can use those dollars to make life more affordable for working families all across the state,” Governor Ferguson told a gathering hosted by the No on 645 campaign, the Associated Press reported. Erik Houser, spokesman for the No campaign, called the result “momentous” but warned that “until the Millionaires Tax is in place, there will still be very difficult decisions ahead in the upcoming legislative session.” The No on 645 campaign reported spending nearly $12.7 million defending the tax.

Source: Associated Press via My Edmonds News

How the tax itself works

The timeline is long, and it matters for any reader running the numbers. The tax takes effect on January 1, 2028. The state collects its first payments in 2029. The Office of Financial Management estimates more than $11 billion across the first three years, including about $3 billion in the first year. That money is the state's planned answer to significant budget shortfalls: the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council projects deficits for the current biennium, ending in 2027, and beyond, with the anticipated 2027-2029 shortfall put at several hundred million dollars in September reporting by the Washington State Standard.

The argument that did not end on election night

Opponents of the tax made two claims throughout the campaign: that a threshold set at $1 million today can be lowered tomorrow, and that taxing top earners will push job creators out of the state. Ferguson has said he would veto any legislation lowering the limit, and Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen of Seattle — the tax's architect — has said such bills would not be viable. KNKX noted, however, that at least one Democratic lawmaker has expressed interest in taxing incomes at lower levels, including $250,000 a year — the detail the repeal campaign leaned on hardest, and the one to watch when the Legislature returns.

A court fight also remains possible. Former state Attorney General Rob McKenna said during the law's passage that Washington Republicans would challenge the bill in court — a familiar path in a state whose constitution and courts have historically resisted graduated income taxes. No ruling has tested SB 6346 yet.

What happens next

Three dates now govern the story. Counties keep updating counts daily until results are certified later in November. The tax itself takes effect January 1, 2028, with first payments due in 2029 — which means the 2027 legislative session in Olympia will argue over the budget gap the tax has not yet begun to fill. And any legal challenge to SB 6346, if filed, would run on its own track through the state courts. For Washington's high earners — including business owners in the trucking, farming and tech corridors where many Punjabi families have built companies — the planning question is no longer whether the tax is coming, but how to be ready when it arrives.