India's retail inflation rose to 6.09 per cent in October 2026, breaching the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India's 2–6 per cent tolerance band, according to provisional Consumer Price Index data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday, November 12. The print came in above the 5.93 per cent median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and up from 5.54 per cent in September.

Source: InvestingLive, reporting MoSPI provisional CPI data, Nov 12

This is the outcome Awaaz Punjab flagged on November 6, when the Reuters poll first projected October inflation near the top of the RBI's target band — the official release has now confirmed a breach of the band, the first since October 2024, according to The Hindu BusinessLine's analysis of the release calendar.

Food prices drove the jump. The Consumer Food Price Index rose 8.94 per cent year on year in October, with rural food inflation at 9.09 per cent and urban food inflation at 8.68 per cent. Headline inflation was higher in rural areas at 6.63 per cent, against 5.41 per cent in urban areas, the provisional data showed.

Source: InvestingLive, reporting MoSPI provisional CPI data, Nov 12

Ahead of the release, ICRA had expected the print to harden to 6.1 per cent, crossing the upper limit of the Monetary Policy Committee's target range, partly because of an unfavourable base linked to GST rationalisation. "ICRA expects the headline CPI inflation print to harden to 6.1 per cent in October 2026 from 5.5 per cent in September 2026, crossing the upper limit of the MPC's target range," Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said before the data was published.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine, Nov 6

What happens next

The October print is the last major inflation gauge before the RBI's December monetary policy meeting. Market pricing after the release put a 69 per cent chance on a 25-basis-point rate hike at the next meeting and a 31 per cent chance on a larger 50-basis-point move, according to InvestingLive. Bank of Baroda's research had also flagged that the December meeting would rely on this print as its immediate inflation gauge, with food costs — edible oils, tomatoes and pulses — and below-normal reservoir storage for Rabi sowing as the main risks.

Analysts cited in the release coverage pointed to higher crude oil prices raising India's import bill and feeding into transport, energy and farm costs, alongside a weaker rupee making imports costlier — pressures that fall hardest on food and fuel bills for households.