Alaska's U.S. Senate race is the one Senate contest election night could not settle. With the Associated Press listing the race as too early to call, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan by just 252 votes in the AP count — 78,961 to 78,709 — in a race already shadowed by a federal investigation, a dismissed Justice Department lawsuit and a second candidate on the ballot who shares the senator's name.
Source: Associated Press — Alaska U.S. Senate results
A later state tally reported by the Juneau Independent, based on 165,198 ballots counted as of 9:24 p.m. Alaska time — 27.3 percent of the state's registered voters — showed the same knife-edge picture in percentage terms: Peltola at 48.3 percent, Sullivan at 48.1 percent, the namesake candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. at 1.6 percent and Republican Gerald Heikes at 2.0 percent. Neither leader had anything close to the majority Alaska's ranked-choice system rewards, and the Independent noted that in past elections between 75 and 90 percent of ballots have been known by midday Wednesday — meaning the picture will keep moving as counting continues Tuesday night and beyond.
Source: Juneau Independent — early Alaska returns
Sullivan, speaking briefly to supporters at an Anchorage hotel ballroom on Tuesday night, refused to concede the night. 'The night is young in Alaska,' he said. 'We're seeing a blue wave in the Lower 48. That's not very good. But we all know the great state of Alaska is different. The polls have just closed, and we're getting some preliminary results here. We're seeing strong turnout in the Republican parts of the state. Very strong, actually.' Peltola, the former congresswoman, spoke at her own election-night event in Anchorage, photographed by the AP as returns came in.
The Second Sullivan: Allegations, a Lawsuit and an Investigation
No other Senate race in America carried this one's complication. A retired Petersburg teacher named Daniel J. Sullivan also ran, and Republicans allege — an allegation Peltola, her campaign, Democratic officials and Daniel J. Sullivan himself deny — that Democratic operatives recruited him to confuse voters and pull votes from the senator. The New York Times reported in late October, citing sources, that people tied to Peltola's campaign discussed recruiting a same-name candidate; States Newsroom has noted it has not independently verified those allegations.
Source: Juneau Independent — early Alaska returns
The fight reached the courts before a single vote was counted. The Justice Department sued Alaska election officials on October 22, asking a court to hold up certification if Senator Sullivan lost by fewer votes than the namesake Sullivan received. Chief U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the case on November 1 in a 20-page order, finding the government had not established standing to bring it; the department filed a notice of appeal to the Ninth Circuit the same day. Daniel J. Sullivan's place on the ballot had separately survived a state-court challenge — Alaska's Supreme Court ruled in June that he could remain. Separately, the Justice Department has sent target letters to about 20 people as part of a criminal investigation into the alleged recruitment, according to the Juneau Independent's reporting of PBS coverage — an investigation whose existence does not establish that any crime occurred.
Why the Count Will Take Weeks, Not Hours
Alaska counts slowly by design. Ballots received or postmarked by Tuesday will be counted over the next 15 days, and mail ballots are accepted for 10 days after Election Day — 15 days from overseas voters. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18: the weakest candidates are eliminated and their voters' next choices are redistributed until someone holds a majority. Officials aim to certify the results on November 25. With the two leaders separated by a few hundred votes and the namesake candidate holding thousands, every stage of that process — including the pending Ninth Circuit appeal — could matter.
The race was one of the most watched in the country long before election night. Peltola, who represented Alaska's at-large House seat, challenged Sullivan on taxation and federal benefits for Alaskans, among other issues — she has pushed to abolish income taxes on Alaskans earning less than $92,000, according to pre-election reporting — while Sullivan ran on his Senate record and Republican turnout in the state's conservative regions. Pre-election polling averages put Peltola narrowly ahead, about 47.0 percent to 44.8 percent, with the namesake candidate projected in some polls at several percent — a share larger than the current margin many times over.
The Senate deadlock was not Alaska's only story. In the state's lone U.S. House race, Republican incumbent Nick Begich III led independent Bill Hill 49.3 percent to 41 percent in the same early tally. In the governor's race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins held about 49.9 percent against three divided Republicans — Bernadette Wilson at about 29 percent, Dave Bronson at 14 percent and Treg Taylor at 7.2 percent — putting Alaska on course to elect its first Democratic governor since 1998. And Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal ranked-choice voting, was losing by about 48 percent to 52 percent in early returns. All of those figures are early and unofficial.
Counting continues Tuesday night and through the next 15 days; the ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18 if nobody reaches a majority, and certification is targeted for November 25. The Justice Department's appeal of the dismissed certification lawsuit is pending in the Ninth Circuit, and its criminal investigation continues. Awaaz Punjab will update this story when the AP calls the race or the state releases a tally that changes the leader.