LONDON — The world's big central banks largely hit the pause button in October after a September hiking spree, Reuters reported on Wednesday, November 4, but policymakers and analysts signalled that stubborn inflation — and oil prices that posted double-digit gains in both September and October — mean the tightening cycle is not necessarily over.

Source: Reuters, Nov 4, 2026 (Karin Strohecker and Sumanta Sen)

Among the central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies, the so-called G10, only the Bank of Canada raised interest rates in October. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Japan all held rates steady, while the central banks of Switzerland, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Britain held no rate-setting meetings at all in the month.

Source: IndexBox summary of Reuters data, Nov 4, 2026

350 basis pointsTotal G10 tightening so far this year, through 14 rate hikes — with no cuts at all (100 basis points = 1 percentage point)
150 basis pointsCombined September hikes by six G10 central banks — the biggest monthly tightening push since June 2023
75 basis pointsCombined October hikes in emerging markets, by India and the Philippines only
100 basis pointsTurkey's October rate CUT, resuming easing after an eight-month pause

The numbers show how one-sided the year has been: G10 central banks have delivered 350 basis points of tightening through 14 hikes in 2026, with none cutting rates. The October lull followed a busy September, when six G10 central banks delivered a combined 150 basis points of hikes, the biggest monthly tightening push since June 2023.

Source: Reuters, Nov 4, 2026

'This pause does not mark the end of the cycle'

Economists warned against reading October as a turning point. Anis Bensaidani, a BNP Paribas economist tracking the United States and Japan, noted that the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all left rates untouched, but stressed that this pause does not mark the end of the cycle. Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, described policy as 'tight, but probably not tight enough yet', pointing to signals from central banks that further increases were possible.

Source: IndexBox / Finimize summaries of Reuters, Nov 4, 2026

The complication is energy. Brent crude futures posted double-digit percentage gains in both September and October, Reuters noted, raising the prospect of renewed inflation pressures filtering through shipping, fuel and food prices — the same oil shock that has kept the US–Iran war at the centre of markets all autumn. That is why analysts say the next moves depend on whether inflation keeps cooling or re-accelerates.

Emerging markets: India and the Philippines hike, Turkey cuts

The lull was visible in developing economies too. From a Reuters sample of 18 emerging-market central banks, only two — India and the Philippines — raised rates in October, by a total of 75 basis points, while 10 others that met left their benchmarks unchanged. Turkey went the other way, resuming monetary easing after pausing for eight months with a cut of 100 basis points. For the year to date, the emerging-market group has tightened by a combined 675 basis points across 16 increases and loosened by 850 basis points across 25 reductions — a far more two-way picture than the G10's hikes-only year.

Source: IndexBox summary of Reuters data, Nov 4, 2026

What happens next: with no G10 cuts recorded anywhere this year and oil still volatile after this week's plunge on US–Iran deal hopes, borrowers from Toronto to Mumbai should expect central banks to keep the option of one more hike open into the winter meetings. For households, that means mortgage and loan rates are unlikely to fall quickly even though October itself brought a breather.