New Delhi, Nov 4: India's cotton production for the 2026-27 season, which began in October, is estimated to decline by around 14 per cent to 280 lakh bales of 170 kg each, from 325.69 lakh bales last year, according to the first estimates of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), The Hindu BusinessLine reported on Wednesday. Lower acreage and drought in key producing states have affected output this year.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

280 lakh balesCAI first estimate of India's 2026-27 cotton production, down about 14% from 325.69 lakh bales last year
417.88 lakh balesTotal estimated supply, including opening stocks of 72.88 lakh bales and imports of 65 lakh bales
365 lakh balesEstimated consumption, flat from last year
12 lakh balesProjected exports, down from 15 lakh bales last year
40.88 lakh balesExpected closing stocks on September 30, 2027, down from 72.88 lakh bales a year earlier

According to the first estimate and balance sheet for 2026-27, prepared by the CAI Crop Committee and posted on the trade body's website, total supply is estimated at 417.88 lakh bales, comprising opening stocks of 72.88 lakh bales and imports of 65 lakh bales. CAI has projected imports at 65 lakh bales, marginally lower than last year's 71.6 lakh bales, and noted that the government recently extended the duty exemption on cotton imports until December-end. Consumption is estimated to remain flat at 365 lakh bales, while exports are projected to decline to 12 lakh bales from 15 lakh bales last year, and closing stocks are expected to fall to 40.88 lakh bales as of September 30, 2027, from 72.88 lakh bales a year earlier.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

The fall is concentrated in the Central and South zones. CAI has pegged Central Zone production at 176 lakh bales, significantly lower than last year's 199.35 lakh bales, mainly due to a decline in Maharashtra, which has been affected by drought: Maharashtra's output is projected at 91 lakh bales against 113.35 lakh bales last year, Gujarat's at 66 lakh bales against 68.5 lakh bales, while Madhya Pradesh's is projected to rise to 19 lakh bales from 17.5 lakh bales. South Zone output is estimated at 71 lakh bales, against 93.84 lakh bales last year — Telangana 34 lakh bales against 42.1 lakh, Andhra Pradesh 12 lakh against 19.8 lakh, Karnataka 20 lakh against 26.94 lakh, and Tamil Nadu flat at 5 lakh bales. Odisha's production is estimated at 3 lakh bales, against 3.5 lakh bales last year.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

The North Zone is the exception. Production in the North Zone, comprising Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, is estimated at 28 lakh bales in 2026-27, marginally higher than the 27 lakh bales recorded last year — Punjab's output is projected at 1.25 lakh bales, slightly lower than last year's 1.5 lakh bales, Haryana's at 8 lakh bales against 6.5 lakh, Upper Rajasthan's at 11.25 lakh bales against 11 lakh, and Lower Rajasthan's at 7.5 lakh bales, compared with 8 lakh bales last year.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

The 280 lakh bale crop and 365 lakh bale consumption figures were also the working numbers cited by CAI President Vinay N Kotak in recent trade reporting: Kotak told Textile Value Chain that India imported a record 71 lakh bales during 2025-26, when domestic production stood at about 330 lakh bales, and that looking to the current crop of around 280 lakh bales for 2026-27, imports would help bridge the gap, with consumption estimated at 365 lakh bales this year. The CAI's first-estimate balance sheet now projects imports at 65 lakh bales for the season.

Source: Textile Value Chain

Sources: The Hindu BusinessLine reporting the Cotton Association of India's first estimates and balance sheet (November 4, 2026), and Textile Value Chain reporting CAI President Vinay N Kotak's comments on the 2026-27 crop and consumption.