America's workforce has nearly stopped growing — and Congress's own non-partisan researchers say falling immigration is one of the two forces behind it. A Congressional Research Service (CRS) Insight published on October 30, 2026, titled 'A Slowdown in U.S. Labor Supply Growth' (IN12750), puts official numbers on a shift that changes how every monthly jobs report should be read: the pace of hiring needed just to keep unemployment steady — the 'break-even' rate — has fallen from about 155,000 jobs a month in 2023-2024 to fewer than 10,000 a month in 2026, according to Federal Reserve research cited by CRS.
Source: Congressional Research Service, IN12750 (via EveryCRSReport)
The labor force is the total of people working or looking for work, and its growth is set by the size of the working-age population (broadly, age 16 and older) and by how many of them participate. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data for 2026 show the 12-month labor force growth rate falling from -0.1% in January to -0.6% in September. CRS notes that part of that decline reflects a technical adjustment to the 2026 data: on BLS estimates that account for the adjustment, the growth rate fell from 0.5% to 0.2% over the same months — still a steep slowdown, in the same direction.
The immigration numbers behind the slowdown
CRS identifies two long-running trends: the long-term aging of the population, and the decline in net international migration (NIM) that began in 2025. The Census Bureau — which described the drop as a 'historic decline' — estimates that net international migration fell from a peak of 2.7 million people in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. In January 2026, the Census Bureau projected it would fall further, to 321,000 in 2026. CRS is careful about that projection: it is based on data only through June 2025, immigration policies and practices have changed since then, and some recent studies point to a decline using various methods — in some cases estimating that net migration could turn negative in 2026.
Source: CRS IN12750 — Census Bureau estimates
That fall matters for jobs because of who does America's work. Foreign-born workers made up 19.1% of the U.S. labor force in 2025, according to the BLS figures CRS cites, and foreign-born workers participate in the labor force at relatively high rates. CRS also notes research suggesting that, beyond reducing the number of arriving workers, recent immigration policy and enforcement may have had a 'chilling effect' on labor force participation and employment more generally — an effect research finds has fallen disproportionately on the areas and industries that rely most on foreign-born workers. CRS presents that as a finding of some studies, not as its own settled conclusion.
The second force: an aging country
The other driver needs no policy change to keep running. The 1946-1964 baby boom greatly increased the U.S. population, but fertility rates have fallen since the 1960s, the population has aged, and the large baby-boomer cohort has reached ages at which participation declines — many have retired or will retire soon. Among the native-born population, CRS notes, the number of people reaching age 65 (and less likely to work) or dying already exceeds the number reaching age 16 and entering the working-age population. In plain terms: without immigration, America's working-age population growth increasingly has no engine left.
Why 'weak' jobs numbers may not mean a weak economy
This is the part of the report aimed squarely at anyone who reads the monthly payroll headlines. Since 2024, employment growth has been low — but with labor supply growing this slowly, CRS says, that does not necessarily signal a weak job market. Break-even growth is the number of jobs the economy must add each month just to absorb new entrants without moving the unemployment rate. Federal Reserve research estimates the immigration surge lifted break-even to about 155,000 a month in 2023-2024; the decline in immigration brought it down to about 85,000 in 2025 and fewer than 10,000 in 2026. With break-even that low, actual jobs growth would be expected to be low without implying a deteriorating market — and, CRS adds, a month or two of declining employment would be less likely than in the past to mean the economy is entering a recession.
Source: Immigration Analytics summary of CRS IN12750 (Nov. 3, 2026)
The long-run stakes: slower growth for a decade
The Congressional Budget Office's current projections, cited by CRS, reflect the same dynamic over the next ten years: potential GDP growth is expected to run 1.2 percentage points below its 1950-2025 average, largely because projected annual potential labor force growth will be about one percentage point lower each year. Unless capital and productivity grow faster to make up the difference, overall economic growth would be expected to decline. CRS adds a nuance policymakers are likely to argue over: because population growth itself is also falling, GDP per person — average economic well-being — would fall by less than overall GDP, and 'may therefore be more relevant to policymakers than overall growth.' Separate Census survey data released in late October put the immigrant population essentially flat at about 50.4 million in 2025, consistent with the slowdown CRS describes.
Foreign-born workers are nearly one in five of the U.S. labor force, and the industries the research says are hit hardest by the slowdown are the ones most reliant on them — the world of trucking, farming, construction, warehouses, care work and small business in which so many Punjabi families in California, New York, New Jersey, Texas and Washington earn their living. A smaller arriving workforce also changes the politics readers will hear in the next Congress: CRS takes no position on the pending work-visa, student-employment and fee rules, but its numbers are the backdrop against which those fights — and enforcement funding — will be decided.
What happens next
CRS offers no legislative options and endorses no party's argument; it is an explainer written for members of Congress, published in the final days before the midterm elections. The tests of its account come in sequence: the coming monthly jobs reports, which analysts will now read against a break-even rate under 10,000 rather than the old six-figure benchmark; and the Census Bureau's next national population estimates, typically released in December, which will show whether the projected 2026 migration slowdown held, deepened or reversed. The Congress elected on November 3 inherits the pending immigration rules on work visas, student employment and fees with immigration no longer adding much to the workforce — a fact both sides will use, in opposite directions.