Former Maine governor Paul LePage declared victory on Wednesday afternoon, November 4, 2026, in the race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District, telling supporters at Sea Dog Brewing Co. in Bangor, “I am declaring victory” — but the Associated Press had still not called the race as of its 5:27 p.m. update, and Democrat Matt Dunlap has not conceded. With about 92 percent of the vote counted, the AP tally put LePage ahead by just 1,830 votes in one of the last undecided House races in the country, and Maine's ranked-choice voting system now looks likely to decide who finally takes the seat.

Source: WMTW, LePage declares victory in Maine CD2, updated 5:27 p.m. Nov. 4, 2026

Districtwide unofficial totals published by WABI-TV, checked at 6:05 p.m. on Wednesday, showed LePage on 158,825 votes (50.3 percent of the candidate vote) and Dunlap on 156,995 (49.7 percent), with 163 votes for declared write-in candidate Gregory A. Ward of Limestone. A later Decision Desk HQ snapshot, timed 6:57 p.m. Eastern, showed both totals higher as more towns reported — LePage 165,732 and Dunlap 161,665, with 4,012 blank ballots recorded — and still no call. Vote counts differ slightly between trackers as returns are updated, and all of these figures are unofficial.

A lead that flipped while Maine counted

For much of Wednesday the race pointed the other way. As of 8:30 a.m., with about 85 percent of the expected vote counted, Dunlap — Maine's state auditor — was leading narrowly, 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent, 148,454 votes to 147,747, a margin of barely 700 votes, the Midcoast Villager reported. Through the afternoon the remaining rural towns reported, the lead changed hands, and by the AP's 5:22 p.m. count LePage had moved 1,830 votes in front. Dunlap's campaign refused to treat that as the end of the story: it told WMTW that Dunlap had not called LePage to concede, saying, “No news yet, lots of votes to count.”

The seat, and the two men fighting for it

The 2nd District is an open seat: the incumbent Democrat, Representative Jared Golden, did not run for re-election, Mainebiz reported. It is a largely rural district that President Donald Trump carried in 2024, along with its single electoral vote — the kind of district Republicans expected to flip in a normal year. Instead it has produced one of the closest finishes of the midterms, on a night when Democrats were winning control of Congress nationally. LePage, a Republican, served two terms as Maine's governor, from 2011 to 2019, and was earlier mayor of Waterville. Dunlap, a Democrat, is the state auditor and a former Maine secretary of state — the office that runs Maine's elections — which makes his refusal to concede a procedural statement as much as a political one: he knows exactly how much counting is still left to do.

Why ranked-choice voting will probably decide this

Maine does not simply hand a federal race to the candidate with the most votes. Ranked-choice voting applies to U.S. House general elections with more than two candidates, and this race qualifies because Ward is a declared write-in candidate, the Maine Secretary of State's office says. Under state law a candidate wins outright only with more than 50 percent of all ballots cast for the office — including blank ballots and overvotes. Once the blanks in the Decision Desk HQ count are included, neither candidate is clearly over that line. The Maine Morning Star reported that a ranked-choice runoff now appears likely, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said last month that she thought one was likely. In a ranked-choice count, ballots and memory devices are brought to Augusta, where the Secretary of State's staff tabulate them in public; a statewide count takes about one and a half to two weeks, and results are certified within 20 days, her office says.

Bellows added a second reason for patience on Wednesday. Speaking on Maine Public's “Maine Calling” program, she said every town in the state has counted its ballots — but under state law, town clerks have two days to verify their results and send them to her office. In other words, the count that exists on television screens tonight is not yet the count the state itself has verified, and the Associated Press's refusal to call the race reflects exactly that gap.

Source: Maine Public, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on the count, Nov. 4, 2026

The recount door is open too

Separate from ranked-choice tabulation, Maine law lets a candidate other than the apparent winner ask the Secretary of State in writing for a recount within five business days after the election; in a ranked-choice race, the top three candidates in the next-to-last round may ask for one. No deposit is required when the difference is 1 percent or less of the total votes cast, or not more than 1,000 votes, whichever is less — a test this margin, at roughly half a percent, would meet on the percentage limb. In a recount, State Police collect the ballots and the candidates' representatives count them under the Secretary of State's supervision; if ballots are still disputed afterwards and could change the result, the U.S. House itself decides them.