Some Gulf governments now believe US President Donald Trump has more reason than ever to seek a peace deal with Iran, and that another full-scale American assault on Iran is less likely after his Republican Party lost control of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections, two sources familiar with Gulf government thinking told Reuters on Wednesday, November 4.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
The assessment, reported by Reuters from London, is the first clear read from the Gulf capitals that live in the shadow of the eight-month-old US-Iran war. It is not yet clear how Trump's loss of Congress will shape the conflict, Reuters said, but voters have shown they are weary of the war, which many blame for painfully higher fuel prices — and Democrats captured majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in Tuesday's vote.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
A deal opportunity — or a trap, says a leading Gulf analyst
Ebtesam al-Ketbi of the Emirates Policy Center told Reuters that Trump's electoral drubbing may also embolden Iran. 'If Tehran recognises that Trump needs a deal, but not just any deal, a genuine opportunity could emerge to end the war,' she said. However, reading the vote as weakness could instead invite 'a new military escalation', she added.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
Tehran's public line so far points the other way. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that US hostility would persist regardless of which party is in power, warning against 'even the slightest inclination towards submission' to the US. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, posted on X that Americans had said 'NO TO WAR' and warned Washington not to ignore public opinion by attacking his country again.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
Khamenei's midterm message — that anyone expecting a US policy shift after Trump's defeat is 'seriously mistaken', with a warning of a much wider Iranian response to US strikes — was reported in full earlier today, as was Qalibaf's 'NO TO WAR' warning. Read: Khamenei warns of wider response, no US policy shift
Ahead of the US election, senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran was deliberately prolonging talks with the United States to weaken Trump politically ahead of the vote. Mediators have intensified efforts to end the war amid fears it could reignite after the election: Trump on Tuesday declined to rule out a resumption of combat operations after the vote, and Iran, which remains on high alert for renewed strikes, is planning wider retaliation if the war resumes, Reuters reported.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
Oil markets are betting Trump wants the war behind him
The Iran war has choked supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf, driving up crude costs and prices at fuel pumps around the world. On Wednesday the energy market wagered that the elections could breathe more life into US-Iran peace talks: oil dropped for a third day, although tight stock levels prevented a larger selloff, analysts told Reuters. 'The market increasingly appears to be betting that President Trump wants to put the Middle East war behind him,' said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
In early Wednesday trade, Brent crude slipped 1.26% to about $102.2 a barrel — yaani roughly $102 per barrel — and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.68% to about $95.44, after Brent had already settled at its lowest level in close to four weeks in the previous session, Invezz reported, as investors weighed whether a Democrat-controlled Congress would make it harder for Trump to fund or expand an expensive Iran campaign. Those are market prices reported on Wednesday morning, not a settled trend: a sudden escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could push prices back up fast.
Source: Invezz (Nov 4)
Israel feels the shift too
For Israel, a Democrat-controlled House and Senate may intensify congressional scrutiny of Israel's military operations in Iran as well as in Gaza and Lebanon, while threatening long-standing US support for Israel through military aid and weapons sales, Reuters reported. Rivals seeking to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seized on the Democrats' wins to lambaste him for a loss of bipartisan American support under his watch, as they seek to forge a coalition following an inconclusive Israeli election last week.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
Ukraine, the Kremlin — and what Congress can and cannot change
Control of both chambers will allow Democrats to propose new aid to Ukraine, and if they win enough Republican backing for a two-thirds majority, a new aid package would survive a Trump veto — but any boost is unlikely to come quickly and would not fix Ukraine's most pressing need, a deficit of US-made Patriot air-defence interceptors to protect its energy infrastructure and cities this winter, Reuters said. Democratic Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, a candidate to head the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has introduced bipartisan legislation to block Trump's plan to bring Russian diesel back into the global market. The Kremlin said it hoped the midterm results would not impact what it called Trump's 'peacemaking efforts'.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)
What is solid
- Democrats captured majorities in both the US Senate and the House in the Nov 3 midterms (Reuters).
- The Gulf assessment in this report comes from two unnamed sources familiar with Gulf government thinking, speaking to Reuters — it is sourced reporting, not an official Gulf government statement.
- Oil fell for a third day on Wednesday, with Brent near $102 a barrel in early trade (Reuters; Invezz).
What is only claimed
- Whether Trump now seeks a deal or resumes strikes: Gulf sources and oil markets lean toward a deal push, but Trump himself declined on Tuesday to rule out renewed combat operations, and Iran says it is planning wider retaliation if war resumes.
- Whether Tehran reads the vote as an opening or as weakness: analyst Ebtesam al-Ketbi told Reuters either reading is possible, with very different outcomes.
What happens next — and why it matters in the Gulf
The diplomatic track has not moved yet: as Awaaz Punjab reported earlier this week, Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Washington's response to Tehran's seven conditions — which include waiving oil sanctions, ending the US naval blockade and releasing frozen Iranian funds — 'was not convincing', and that only if they are met will the Strait of Hormuz reopen; Qatar has stepped up mediation to avert a renewed escalation. The background is a war that began on February 28, a Hormuz shipping crisis, the US naval blockade of Iran, and this week's limited US 'defensive' strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, which Trump confirmed and called a 'minor attack'. For the lakhs of Punjabi and Indian workers who live and work across the Gulf states, the Gulf governments' new reading cuts both ways: a genuine peace push would ease the risk to their safety, jobs, flights and remittances, while a misread signal — Tehran treating the vote as weakness, or Washington striking anyway — could bring the war back to their doorsteps. No new talks date was announced in Wednesday's reporting.
Source: Reuters (Nov 4)